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| 1 |
ID:
122737
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.
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| 2 |
ID:
116908
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in the world. The Chinese government faces growing challenges of ensuring energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To address these two issues, the Chinese government has announced two ambitious domestic indicative autonomous mitigation targets for 2020: increasing the ratio of non-fossil energy to 15% and reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% from 2005 levels. To explore the role of non-fossil energy in achieving these two targets, this paper first provides an overview of current status of non-fossil energy development in China; then gives a brief review of GDP and primary energy consumption; next assesses in detail the role of the non-fossil energy in 2020, including the installed capacity and electricity generation of non-fossil energy sources, the share and role of non-fossil energy in the electricity structure, emissions reduction resulting from the shift to non-fossil energy, and challenges for accomplishing the mitigation targets in 2020; finally, conclusions and policy measures for non-fossil energy development are proposed.
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