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Modern View
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
(2)
answer(s).
Srl
Item
1
ID:
117271
Impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop
/ Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic
Moran, Dominic
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Publication
2013.
Summary/Abstract
The UK Government policy is for the area of perennial energy crops in the UK to expand significantly. Farmers need to choose these crops in preference to conventional rotations for this to be achievable. This paper looks at the potential level and variability of perennial energy crop incomes and the relation to incomes from conventional arable crops. Assuming energy crop prices are correlated to oil prices the results suggests that incomes from them are not well correlated to conventional arable crop incomes. A farm scale mathematical programming model is then used to attempt to understand the affect on risk averse farmers crop selection. The inclusion of risk reduces the energy crop price required for the selection of these crops. However yields towards the highest of those predicted in the UK are still required to make them an optimal choice, suggesting only a small area of energy crops within the UK would be expected to be chosen to be grown. This must be regarded as a tentative conclusion, primarily due to high sensitivity found to crop yields, resulting in the proposal for further work to apply the model using spatially disaggregated data.
Key Words
Energy Crops
;
Mathematical Programmes
;
Risk and Uncertainty
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2
ID:
127874
Survey of western U.S. electric utility resource plans
/ Wilkerson, Jordan; Larsen, Peter; Barbose, Galen
Barbose, Galen
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Publication
2014.
Summary/Abstract
We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 - before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.
Key Words
Energy Resources
;
Energy Policy
;
Risk Management
;
Energy Management
;
Energy Strategy
;
Renewable Energy
;
Energy Supply
;
Energy Generation
;
Electricity Demand
;
Demand Side Management
;
Risk and Uncertainty
;
United States - US
;
Western United States
;
Future Strategy
;
Resource Planning
;
Electric Utility
;
Energy Data
;
Long-Term Resource Planning
;
Data Collecton
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