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| 1 |
ID:
127912
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Ireland imports 88% of its energy requirements. Oil makes up 59% of total final energy consumption (TFC). Import dependency, low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave Ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security. This work models energy security scenarios for Ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050, with oil production and price scenarios from the International Monetary Fund, within the Irish TIMES energy systems model. The analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for Ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply (0.8% annual import growth, and -2% annual import decline) and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports. The results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for Ireland, at 54% total final energy consumption in 2020, supplanting oil from reference projections of 57% to 10.8% TFC. In 2012, the cost of net oil imports stood at €3.6 billion (2.26% GDP). The modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between €2.9bn and €7.5bn by 2020 (1.9-4.9% of GDP) to choose to develop a least cost energy system. Investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed.
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| 2 |
ID:
125859
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper focuses on Ireland's ambitious target for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% below 2005 levels for sectors not covered by ETS (Non-ETS). Ireland is an interesting case study due to the role of agriculture (a particularly challenging sector with regard to GHG emissions reduction), that represents 29% of Ireland's GHG emissions compared with less than 10% for the EU. The analysis is carried out with the Irish TIMES model, a bottom-up energy systems modelling tool with detailed characterization of Ireland's energy system. The paper uses scenario analysis to provide pathways that demonstrate how Ireland can meet the non-ETS target at least cost. The paper considers the impacts (in terms of different technology choices and higher marginal abatement costs) arising from higher targets for the energy system to compensate for growth in agriculture activity and low mitigation potential in that sector. The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus, with a need for increased effort in renewable transport and renewable heat in particular. The results also point to significant electrification of residential heating. The results also point to a high marginal abatement cost (€213/tCO2), which challenges the analysis carried out at EU level to establish Ireland's non-ETS target.
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| 3 |
ID:
117317
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80-95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways.
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