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ID: 125859

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions / Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Deane, J P; Lavigne, Denis

Deane, J P	Journal Article
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Publication

2013.

Summary/Abstract

This paper focuses on Ireland's ambitious target for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% below 2005 levels for sectors not covered by ETS (Non-ETS). Ireland is an interesting case study due to the role of agriculture (a particularly challenging sector with regard to GHG emissions reduction), that represents 29% of Ireland's GHG emissions compared with less than 10% for the EU. The analysis is carried out with the Irish TIMES model, a bottom-up energy systems modelling tool with detailed characterization of Ireland's energy system. The paper uses scenario analysis to provide pathways that demonstrate how Ireland can meet the non-ETS target at least cost. The paper considers the impacts (in terms of different technology choices and higher marginal abatement costs) arising from higher targets for the energy system to compensate for growth in agriculture activity and low mitigation potential in that sector. The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus, with a need for increased effort in renewable transport and renewable heat in particular. The results also point to significant electrification of residential heating. The results also point to a high marginal abatement cost (€213/tCO2), which challenges the analysis carried out at EU level to establish Ireland's non-ETS target.

Key Words

Energy Systems Modelling ; MARKAL - TIMES ; Emissions Mitigation

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ID: 117317

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system / Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J P

Rogan, Fionn	Journal Article
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Publication

2013.

Summary/Abstract

The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80-95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways.

Key Words

Energy Systems Modelling ; MARKAL - TIMES ; Emissions Mitigation ; MARKAL – TIMES

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