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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
183096
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the US a complete transition to electric vehicles (EVs) would increase demand for carbon-free electricity by around 30% if the future fleet has the same average size, weight and horsepower as current EVs. However, these dimensions for today's EVs are substantially lower than for conventional vehicles, so as EVs replace them, EV's average size, weight and horsepower are likely to increase substantially. Further, major automakers are introducing a new class of very large, powerful “super”-EVs of up to 1000 horsepower. These factors will lead to higher demand for carbon-free electricity. This interdisciplinary paper first examines the social pressure for increasing EV size and power. It then uses data from the 255 EVs tested by the US EPA in 2011–2021, to estimate the effect of increased weight and horsepower on EVs' electricity consumption. It finds that each 1% increase in weight leads to an increase in electricity consumption of about 1%. The transition to EVs could therefore increase electricity consumption by 35% or more and compromise the transition to a decarbonized electricity grid. Policymakers need to plan for a larger decarbonised grid, disincentivise production of large, heavy EVs and promote positive social discourse on the value of smaller, lighter vehicles.
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| 2 |
ID:
192753
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| Summary/Abstract |
Germany has ambitious goals to steeply increase the thermal energy efficiency of its older residential buildings, to reduce CO2 emissions and bring heating costs down, especially for low-income households who are over-represented in such dwellings. However, existing scholarship suggests it is doubtful whether the costs of renovation are offset by energy cost savings, even when renovating to only the most basic energy-efficiency standard. Renovating to more ambitious standards further increases the gap between costs and savings. This study offers a first attempt to quantify the dimensions of the problem and what it means for financing this ambitious goal. It analyses publicly available data on case studies of three of Germany's typical 1940s-1970s-era multi-apartment building types and three typical 1900s–1970s house types, retrofitted to a range of energy-efficiency standards in 2020–2021. It updates these for 2023 construction costs, energy prices, carbon prices and interest rates, and shows how rebound and prebound effects exacerbate the situation. Using cost-benefit analyses based on net-present values, payback is not achieved within 75 years in any scenario. The study concludes that Germany's goal can only be achieved through large financial inputs, i.e., sunk costs which will not be fully returned through energy savings.
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| 3 |
ID:
118849
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Germany aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels and has merged this target with mandatory Energy Saving Regulations for thermal renovation of existing homes: the policy uses the criterion of 'economic viability', whereby renovations must pay back through the space and water heating fuel savings they produce. This paper explores the extent to which economically viable thermal renovations can contribute to the 80% goal, based on an analysis of Germany's experience. It finds that the theoretical savings being achieved, based on calculated pre- and post-renovation consumption, are around 33%, while actual savings, based on measured consumption, are likely to be around 25%. The difference appears to be due to the effects of household behaviour. Further, average measured consumption is estimated to be around 150-180 kWh/m2a nationally, and this would have to be reduced to 30-35 kWh/m2a to meet the 80% policy goal. This is beyond the limits of economically viable renovation technology, which currently achieves around 100 kWh/m2a. The paper suggests that policymakers should de-couple the criterion of economic viability from the 80% goal, emphasise other reasons for renovating to economically viable levels, and consider a more systematic approach to facilitate household behaviour change.
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| 4 |
ID:
176811
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| Summary/Abstract |
Rebound effects occur when energy efficiency upgrades lead to less energy saving than anticipated, compromising CO2 emission reduction. Studies of micro-level rebounds frequently emphasise human agents' personal responsibility in causing or facilitating these rebounds. Studies of macro-level rebounds tend to focus instead on autonomous, depersonalised mechanisms through which energy efficiency increases lead to increased consumption of energy services, often via social structural changes. This leaves out the role of powerful human actors facilitating these structural changes and often reaping rich rewards for doing so. Here I depart from existing rebound effect approaches, drawing on Giddens’ structuration theory to offer a sociological account of how macro-level rebound effects occur. I argue that well-resourced actors co-opt energy efficiency increases to provide new or enhanced CO2-producing goods and services while fostering public desire for these and lobbying vigorously against tighter CO2 emissions standards. Hence these rebounds result from the actions of powerful actors manipulating social structure for personal or corporate reward. I illustrate this with the empirical example of macro-level rebound effects in the US car industry, also employing a radical departure from traditional rebound effect approaches. I argue that policymakers need to take the actions of these powerful individuals more seriously.
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