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| 1 |
ID:
117922
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have expanded their export sector considerably in the last two decades. Their export portfolios range from commodities to knowledge-intensive products. In this paper, we use two portfolio approaches (Markowitz and single index models) to assess export diversification strategies. The results indicate that China's export portfolio dominates the portfolios of Brazil, India, and Russia. China has a highly diversified export profile and also expresses the highest efficiency amongst the BRIC countries. Thus, we make several conclusions about the impact of BRIC countries on the global political economy: (1) export portfolios can be used as a measure of geo-political influence, (2) BRIC countries' export performance approximates the economic behavior of a global 'middle class,' and (3) China's dominance among the BRIC countries, particularly its diverse profile, largely represents the global economy. China's portfolio beta for export is closest to the global portfolio beta.
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| 2 |
ID:
117921
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
International commentators seem to have a consensus view that the Chinese yuan is substantially undervalued and the Chinese monetary authority must take speedy actions to redress the currency misalignment by rapid nominal revaluation. This paper argues for a gradualist but comprehensive strategy for adjusting the renminbi's exchange rate. Taking into consideration the facts that the yuan's undervaluation is caused by an array of domestic and international factors and that the Chinese central bank cannot effectively invest its growing holdings of foreign reserves, we develop a framework to provide a theoretical underpinning for the optimal strategy for the renminbi's gradual revaluation. With this strategy, the renminbi undervaluation problem is gradually redressed through a combination of nominal appreciation and higher inflation plus some other structural and macroeconomic policies. This strategy can also allow absorption of external imbalances, hence strengthening the foundation of China's long-term growth.
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| 3 |
ID:
117920
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Previous studies that have tested the J-Curve phenomenon for Japan or China employed either aggregate trade data between each country and the rest of the world, or aggregate bilateral data between two trade partners. These studies have found no support for the J-Curve. Suspecting that their models could suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate bilateral trade flows between the two countries and examine trade by 73 industries. We find evidence of the J-Curve phenomenon in 24 industries, a unique finding for trade between Japan and China.
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| 4 |
ID:
117923
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study estimated the short-term and long-term pass-through effects of oil prices on inflation in Taiwan from 1981M1-2011M5, employing the producer price general index and various basic sub-indices for evaluation. The empirical results show that oil prices have long-term and short-term pass-through effects on Taiwan's producer price indices. Moreover, producer prices have significant non-linear error-correction relationships with the oil price, output and wages, suggesting asymmetric and time-variant properties of error correction. When the deviation of price in the equilibrium is greater, the error-correction adjustment will be faster. Our findings could therefore enable the monetary authorities and manufacturers to formulate a more effective policy from the oil price shocks.
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| 5 |
ID:
117919
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
It has been widely recognised that China has had a large pool of surplus labour. However, despite its significant implications for wage levels and the Chinese economy, the current debates yield conflicting results as to whether a Lewis turning point has been reached. This paper clarifies a theoretical issue about the mechanisms of surplus labour absorption, subsequently indentifies two Lewis turning points and examines the factors that affect the reaching of these two points. It then applies the framework to China to study the labour absorption process and examines some of the likely implications of the removal of the Hukou system in terms of welfare and economic performance.
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