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ID:
133753
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This essay reviews diffusion as studied in large-N civil war research. In doing so, a number of pitfalls and lacunae are identified. First, the definition of diffusion as a process-whereby internal conflict in one location alters the probability of internal conflict erupting in another location at a later point in time-entails a number of difficulties for empirical modeling. Researching such a process involves an attempt to study a phenomenon that, in essence, is unobservable. It also creates difficulties in identifying relevant units of analysis, because the process involves at least two units. Second, diffusion is customarily identified based on correlations within a spatial and temporal proximity. Classifying it in this way risks simultaneously over- and underestimating cases of diffusion, which in turn generates uncertainty regarding the main determinants of diffusion. With these observations in mind, this essay ends with a word of caution for policymakers, with relevance extending beyond diffusion of civil war.
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| 2 |
ID:
120874
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
There is a commonly expressed concern that granting territorial concessions to separatist groups may create "domino effects." However, although this statement is largely undisputed within political rhetoric, no firm conclusions have been provided in previous research. The purpose of this study is to systematically examine whether the granting of territorial concessions to an ethnic group does indeed spur new separatist conflicts. I suggest that such domino effects may be generated by two processes. First, the accommodation of an ethnic group's separatist demands may trigger a general inspiration process among other groups within and across borders. Second, by acquiescing to separatist demands, a government signals that it may also yield to the demands of other groups it confronts, making it more likely that other groups choose to pursue secessionism. Statistical analysis of data on territorial concessions globally 1989-2004 provides no evidence of domino effects. This holds true both within and across borders.
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