| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The steps-to-war theory has made important strides in uncovering the causes of interstate armed conflict. Scholars now have a reliable way to delineate the path to war or towards peace. This article explores the relationship between Russia and its 'Near Abroad' neighbors Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia to investigate the probability of war and conflict in the region during the post-Cold War era. Here, we create a risk barometer for war by combining recent empirical findings with qualitative foreign policy analysis. The analysis demonstrates Estonia's probable successful path out of war with Russia, while the Ukraine's growing risk for coming conflict increases as the variables of interest pile on. Georgia and Russia have already had a war that followed the path outlined in the theory and might battle again in the future based on our findings. This article demonstrates how an empirical theory of international relations behavior can be used to explore the potential for future conflict in the region so as to inform policy analysis.
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