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ID: 122424

Al Qaeda's uncertain future / Hoffman, Bruce

Hoffman, Bruce	Journal Article
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2013.

Summary/Abstract

This article considers the current state of the Al Qaeda terrorist movement and its likely future trajectory. It considers the principle assumptions both today and in the past about Al Qaeda and how they affect our understanding of the movement and the threat that it poses; Al Qaeda's current capacity for violence; and its ability to plan strategically and implement terrorist operations. The article further identifies nine key change drivers that will likely determine Al Qaeda's fate in the years to come before concluding that, even while the core Al Qaeda group may be in decline, Al Qaeda-ism, the movement's ideology, continues to resonate and attract new adherents. In sum, it argues that Al Qaeda remains an appealing brand most recently and most especially to extremist groups in North and West Africa and the Levant.

Key Words

North Africa ; West Africa ; Al Qaeda ; Terrorist Operations ; Terrorist Movement ; Future Trajectory ;
Movement's Ideology

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ID: 150271

Future conditional : naval power sits at the centre of Russian strategy / Till, Geoffrey

Till, Geoffrey	Journal Article
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Key Words

National Security ; National Interest ; Naval Power ; Russian Strategy ; Future Trajectory ; Russian Naval Strategy

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ID: 163927

India's drone regulations-1.0: progress, policy gaps and future trajectory / Narang, R K

Narang, R K	Journal Article
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Future Trajectory ; India's Drone Regulations

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ID: 171040

On the sixth generation: preliminary speculations about Chinese politics after Xi / Dittmer, Lowell

Dittmer, Lowell	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

Contrary to the current tendency to extrapolate China’s future trajectory from its current retrenchment, it is argued that China has changed substantially in the past and is likely to continue to change in the future. While change has always been strife-torn and radically contingent, it may be seen in retrospect to fit a rough pattern as occasioned by generational as well as ideological and developmental factors. Can we find clues in this pattern of change that provide some basis for speculation about China’s future? A definition of ‘generation,’ is followed by a review of the past pattern of China’s generational evolution and by a theory of generational change to account for it. The essay concludes with a discussion of China’s path-dependent cyclical future evolution.

Key Words

Change ; Chinese Politics ; Future Trajectory ; Leadership Politics

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