| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
India is due to hold a general election in April- May 2014, and speculation about the shape of the next government in New Delhi has reached a fever pitch. The presence of a new political player-the Common Man's Party (Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP)-has thrown open a contest that was already going to be difficult to call. Election forecasting in India is a perilous task in any case, given the country's diversity and fragmented politics. Nonetheless, certain broad trends can be discerned. One is the parlous state of the country's oldest party, the Indian National Congress. The Congress has been in government during much of independent India's history. For the past decade it has governed the nation as the leader of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and its popularity has steadily declined. After the 2014 general election, it is unlikely to be in a position to form a new government.
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