| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
SOMALIA IS NAVIGATING THE MOST PROMISING LANDSCAPE for peace and stability that the blighted country has seen in more than two decades. The successful political transition that culminated in the creation of a federal republic, the election of a broadly representative national government headed by a cadre of invested civil society leaders, and a rollback of the militant terrorist group Al-Shabaab are promising signs for the future. However, there are a number of factors that will restrict the capacity of the central state to coalesce effectively and assert its role. Al-Shabaab, while eroded and increasingly fragmented, still has considerable capacity to trigger violence and instability, as the June car bombing of the UN compound demonstrated. The structure of the state remains incomplete, with little progress on formalizing the constitution and establishing the electoral process, and a number of major points of contention remain, including the movement to establish a new regional Jubaland state to the west of Mogadishu.
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