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| 1 |
ID:
124307
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector.
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| 2 |
ID:
149995
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We analyse the impact of the current and an alternative stricter EU CO2 car legislation on transport related CO2 emissions, on the uptake of electric vehicles (EV), on the reduction of oil consumption, and on total energy system costs beyond 2020. We apply a TIMES based energy system model for Europe. Results for 2030 show that a stricter target of 70 g CO2/km for cars could reduce total transport CO2 emissions by 5% and oil dependence by more than 2% compared to the current legislation. The stricter regulatory CO2 car target is met by a deployment of more efficient internal combustion engine cars and higher shares of EV Total system costs increase by less than 1%. The analysis indicates that EV deployment and the decarbonisation of the power system including higher shares of variable renewables can be synergistic. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the deployment of EV would sharply increase between 2020 and 2030 at learning rates above 12.5%, reaching shares above 30% in 2030. Finally, the study highlights that, besides legislating cars, policies for other transport sectors and modes are needed to curb transport related CO2 emission growth by 2030.
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| 3 |
ID:
191279
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| Summary/Abstract |
Decarbonizing urban energy consumption is critical for addressing climate change, yet renewable power installations in cities are rare due to limited space and economic unattractiveness. Community solar, where multiple electricity users share the electricity generated by their rooftop PV systems, could help overcome these barriers and accelerate PV adoption in cities. Using an agent-based model, we simulated the decision-making of nearly 5000 building owners in a city district in Zurich, Switzerland, and assessed three locally relevant policy scenarios: no community solar, community solar with adjacent buildings, and community solar with buildings within a 100-meter radius. The results show that allowing community solar with adjacent buildings increases the installed PV capacity in 2035 by 1%, as greater economies of scale and higher self-consumption make PV adoption more economically attractive. A more permissive policy, allowing community solar with buildings within a 100-meter radius, provides more opportunities to communities to grow over time and results in 21% more PV installed capacity in 2035 than without community solar. These findings demonstrate the potential of community solar to accelerate PV adoption in cities and underscore the significant role of policy design in achieving this goal.
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| 4 |
ID:
150029
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| Summary/Abstract |
The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in shale oil production in North America brought scrutiny on the US export ban for crude oil from 1975. The ban was eventually lifted in early 2016. This paper examines the shifts of global trade flows and strategic refinery investments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial equilibrium model. We consider detailed oil supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil types, distinct oil products, as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport. Prices, quantities produced and consumed, as well as infrastructure and refining capacity investments are endogenous to the model. We compare two scenarios: an insulated US crude oil market, and a counter-factual with lifted export restrictions.
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| 5 |
ID:
166930
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the major challenges associated with evaluating energy demand in the residential building sector in an integrated energy system modelling environment. Three established modelling fields are examined to generate a framework for assessing the impact of energy policy: energy system models, building stock models and dynamic building simulation. A set of profound challenges emerge when attempting to integrate such models, due to distinct differences in their intended applications, operational scales, formulations and computational implementations.
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| 6 |
ID:
125628
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
German energy policy targets envision a share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) of at least 80% in 2050. How can the transformation of the German electricity sector be achieved and at what costs? This paper addresses these questions by means of a meta-analysis of 10 recent model-based mitigation scenarios for Germany. It turns out that the scenarios exploit the three basic strategic options of increasing the share of RES-E - domestic RES-E generation, electricity demand reductions, and RES-E imports - to substantially different extents. Domestic RES-E generation increases in all scenarios, particularly from onshore and offshore wind. Scenarios that rely heavily on reducing electricity demand require a relatively low expansion of domestic RES-E generation. Despite detailed technical analyses, insights on the costs of the transformation remain limited. A discussion of underlying scenario assumptions reveals that it is unclear whether (i) RES-E and system integration technology development will be as cost-competitive as postulated, (ii) implicitly assumed institutional requirements will be realized, and (iii) relevant actors in the transformation process will be incentivized accordingly. Therefore, future research should pursue a thorough assessment of strategic options for transforming the German electricity system that consistently integrates technologies, institutions, and actors.
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| 7 |
ID:
149961
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study presents a framework to quantitatively evaluate decentralized generation and storage technology (DGST) performance and policy impacts in a rural setting. The role of DGSTs in the future energy systems planning of a rural agglomeration in Switzerland is examined using a cost optimization modeling approach. Heat and electricity demand for major sectors are considered. Scenarios introduce DGSTs in a stepwise manner to measure incremental impacts on future capacity planning compared to a baseline scenario. Sub-scenarios also examine the impacts of carbon mitigation policies, and a sensitivity analysis is carried out for key energy carriers and conversion technologies. DGSTs enable a significant reduction in electricity grid usage for the community considered. Small hydro with a storage reservoir and photovoltaics enable the community to become largely self-sufficient with over 80% reductions in grid imports by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. Storage enables maximum usage of the available hydro potential which also leads to network upgrade deferrals and a significant increase in photovoltaic installations. Investment decisions in small hydro are robust against cost variations, while heating technology investment decisions are sensitive to oil and grid electricity prices. Carbon pricing policies are found to be effective in mitigating local fossil fuel emissions.
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| 8 |
ID:
171414
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| Summary/Abstract |
The anticipated economic and population growth in India will increase demand for material resources, energy and consequently carbon emissions. The global ambition to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the century calls for rapid and unprecedented action. As the most carbon-intensive sectors, India's steel and cement industry will require a more transformative shift, both on the demand and supply side.
Strategies from both supply and demand-side are analysed for steel and cement sector to understand consequences for energy and emissions using two modelling approaches i) energy system and ii) material flow models. A portfolio of technically feasible options to reduce the material, energy and CO2 intensity is explored under four alternate scenarios spanning till 2050 differentiated by their mitigation ambition and development paradigm.
Results show that current policies in India will provide adequate incentives for achieving the climate targets India has submitted within its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) however, dematerialisation, reuse and recycling will be necessary for achieving the global ambition of 1.5 °C. The study concludes that a stringent carbon policy in combination with strong sustainability principles can reduce CO2 emissions by 68% in the steel and cement sector in 1.5 °C Scenario compared to NDC Scenario.
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