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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
126619
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The present paper focuses on medium-term effects of alternative windfall management strategies for a resource abundant country where the resource revenues are expected to last over a prolonged period. In particular, the trade-off between spending and saving is analyzed within the framework of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The model is further validated against historical data available for 2001-2010. The total factor productivity is calculated endogenously in the model based on a function that reflects the changes in factor productivity.
The results suggest that saving oil revenues, whether in an oil fund or through physical investment in domestic sectors, leads to a higher economic growth. However, physical investment is superior in the short to medium term based on the resultant GDP while creating an oil fund might be more beneficial in the post oil era.
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| 2 |
ID:
150351
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this study we aim at assessing the potential of European regions to solar power generation and its comparison with recent European Union (EU) incentives for the development of this renewable energy source. In this study we use a multi-criteria assessment (MCA) supported by Geographical Information System (GIS) to combine already existing information on solar radiation with other geographical factors such as slope, land use, urban extent and population distribution, as well as proximity to the power grid to generate a suitability map for photovoltaic (PV) power plants across the EU at high spatial resolution. A validation exercise showed that the resulting suitability map is a good predictor of appropriate locations for the deployment of PV power plants. The suitability map was in addition compared to the regional distribution of European funds for development of solar energy from the EU Cohesion policy (2007–2013 programme). Regions were classified according their overall suitability for solar energy power systems and the allocated solar investments by the EU Cohesion policy. This analysis allowed to identify potential mismatches between fund allocations and actual regional suitability for solar energy. It is recommended that future fund allocations take into account suitability criteria for solar energy for optimised results of public policies.
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| 3 |
ID:
173178
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| Summary/Abstract |
In recent years many former heads of foreign governments have visited China, appearing at various forums, conferences, and other events. China’s engagement with these former leaders may appear to be a form of public diplomacy, but even more importantly it has been a strategy of political legitimation adopted by the Chinese Communist Party. Based on an original database of hundreds of cases, we provide a systematic analysis of the visits of former foreign leaders to China and of their role as external validators for the party-state and its policy initiatives, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative. By shedding light on the Party’s search for external consent and support, we seek to fill a significant gap in the literature, which tends to focus narrowly on the domestic sources of legitimacy and domestic strategies of legitimation.
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| 4 |
ID:
166550
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| Summary/Abstract |
When agencies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles, forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts. We compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for US EPA to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008, 2010, and 2016. The simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness-of-prediction measures for both prediction years. Including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares. This bias suggests price increases are correlated with unobserved increases in vehicle quality, changes in preferences, or brand-specific changes in market size but not cost pass-through. For 2010, past shares predict better than a nested logit model despite a major shock, the economic disruption caused by the Great Recession. Observed share changes during this turbulent period may offer upper bounds for policy changes in other contexts: the largest observed change in market share across the two horizons is 6.6% for manufacturers in 2016 and 3.4% for an individual vehicle in 2010.
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| 5 |
ID:
179294
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| Summary/Abstract |
How well do vignette designs capture actual behaviour in the real world? This study employs original survey data featuring both hypothetical vignettes and behavioural questions in order to assess the external validity of descriptive and causal inferences in survey experiments. The survey was conducted in a three-province, probability-proportional-to-size sample of 1,897 rural residents in China and focuses on the legal mobilization of citizens in response to grievances involving land rights. In terms of descriptive inference, we find that relative to the behavioural benchmark, hypothetical vignettes significantly over-estimate legal mobilization in response to a grievance, particularly for higher-cost actions like petitioning the government and litigating in court. We find that data from hypothetical vignettes affect causal inference as well, producing significantly different results regarding the effect of political connections and legal knowledge on legal mobilization. The study makes a contribution by identifying conditions under which hypothetical vignettes are less likely to produce valid inference. It engages a rich literature on disputing and legal mobilization in the field of Chinese politics and helps to resolve debates over the role of political connections and legal knowledge.
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