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XU, YAN (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   127299


China's 2020 clean energy target: consistency, pathways and policy implications / Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Zhang, Xingping; Hu, Zheng, Xu, Ming   Journal Article
Yuan, Jiahai Journal Article
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Publication 2014.
Summary/Abstract China has proposed its 2020 clean energy target together with the climate change target of reducing CO2 intensity of the economy by 40-45% below the 2005 level. This article investigates the feasibility of these targets by testing their consistency under possible economic development scenarios. We analyse these targets from two perspectives: consistency with the overall economic growth and consistency with the international society's expectation on China's greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement responsibilities. The main findings are: under the recently announced 2020 target of gross domestic product (GDP) that is double the 2010 level, the adoption of a 15% clean energy target could result in excessive primary energy demand; and then with 40-45% GDP CO2 intensity reduction, CO2 emissions in 2020 could substantially exceed the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 ppm scenario for China. Thus we propose a 17% clean energy target that can reconcile the domestic plan with international expectation. Our article also outlines the pathways to realise clean energy development into 2020 and proposes policy recommendations.
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2
ID:   133251


Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China / Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Hu, Zheng; Zhao, Changhong   Journal Article
Yuan, Jiahai Journal Article
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Publication 2014.
Summary/Abstract China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China×s economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China×s 2050 energy consumption and associated CO2 reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200-5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035-2040; (2) CO2 emissions will peak at 9200-9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030-2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200-300 Mt; (3) China×s per capita energy consumption and per capita CO2 emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020-2030, soon after China steps into the high income group.
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