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ID:
166392
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies´expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.
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| 2 |
ID:
127300
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey forecasting model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation, of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower.
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