| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Several studies have devoted considerable energy toward explaining the occurrence of international conflicts between contiguous states. Despite the well-developed multidisciplinary approaches analyzing militarized disputes, which have predominately focused on studying the geographical dimension as an additional explanatory predictor of rivalry disputes, only very few research papers have considered modelling the duration of conflicts between neighbouring states. Using the event history analysis, we propose, rather than investigating the standard theoretical questions of why neighbouring states do fight each other, or alternatively, what factors commonly influence the dispute outcomes between those rival countries, instead to answer the question: Once it breaks out, what role does the geographic proximity of opponent states play when interacting with other factors, extending or conversely shortening the crisis period? One of the most relevant insights of the present work is that disputes that occur between adjacent countries tend to be shorter when joint democracies are involved, and when countries are dependent economically on each other. The presence of a territorial issue at stake or a long history of hostility over disputed areas tends to prolong the tension period as those disputes often include nationalism dimensions that increase the difficulty of reconciling the divergent views on the issues at stake. On the contrary, the present research does not provide strong support for some of the theoretical suggestions formulated by certain scholars regarding the positive correlation between the nature of opposing powers and the duration of conflict between neighbours.
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