| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
There are conflicting views as to whether water scarcity will lead to cooperation or conflict. The central thesis of this paper is that conflict over water scarcity only becomes likely when it causes an existential threat to a population or state. The paper identifies a requirement for a new definition of the most severe levels of water scarcity in response to the concept of virtual water and proposes a new definition for absolute water scarcity based upon the presence of an existential threat to a population. Using the principles identified from a review of the water conflict debate and the new definition, the paper examines two Central Asian case studies to gauge the likelihood of conflict. In the case of the Aral Sea it concludes that regional geopolitics, assisted by international organisations should be able to find a compromise. In the case of Kazakhstan's Ili and Irtysh Rivers it takes the view that water scarcity, demographics and geopolitics are likely to cause China to export its insecurity to other nations. In so doing it may cause conflict that should be a concern to the UK and other nations.
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