| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2012 Vladimir Putin pledged that Russia would over the next decade invest in a smart defense, embracing new technologies to modernize its conventional forces and its strategic nuclear arsenal to ensure strategic stability in Eurasia. At the core of the demands for Russian military modernization is a very pessimistic appraisal of the current capabilities of Russia's conventional forces and the future deterrence power of its strategic nuclear forces in the face of emergence US ballistic missile defenses and global precision-strike conventional systems. Driving the Russia's notion of future war is threat environment that is complex and raises risks of local crises leading to foreign military intervention. These threats include a persistent terrorism within its own territories and Central Asia, an ideological fear of psychological subversion from the "color revolutions" of the last decade, the geopolitical threat of NATO expansion into Post-Soviet territory, and the stated fear that US military modernization will undermine the credibility of Russia's conventional and nuclear forces. Finally, in spite of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership, there is also an unspoken fear that an emergent China could some day become a threat to Russia's Eastern Siberia and the Far East.
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