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HISTORICAL FACTORS (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   137555


Forecasting conflict in the Arctic: the historical context of Russia’s security intentions / Flake, Lincoln E   Article
Flake, Lincoln E Article
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Summary/Abstract The Arctic has reemerged as a region of geo-political consequence following rapid reduction in sea ice in the past decade. As the only non-NATO Arctic littoral state, Russia’s approaches to the many disputes in the region will undoubtedly have the greatest bearing on the future security environment. This article examines the two most threatening circumpolar disputes, sea bed delineation and navigation rights, and postulates that Russia’s policies on both issues conform to historical patterns. Recent Russian policy decisions are placed in historical context in order to gauge conflict potential in the Arctic related to these two disputes. The main finding is that the path-dependent trajectories of both issues are becoming ever more distinct as Russia articulates its Arctic policies. In particular, structural and historical factors encourage Moscow toward cooperation and compromise on sea bed negotiations but also suggest that Kremlin intransigence on navigation will continue, with potentially detrimental effect on regional stability.
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2
ID:   131998


Politics of contestation in Asia: how Japan and Pakistan deal with their rising neighbors / Ebert, Hannes; Flemes, Daniel; Strüver, Georg   Journal Article
Flemes, Daniel Journal Article
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Publication 2014.
Summary/Abstract Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The article concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the respective secondary power's particular context: in the case of Japan, China's increasingly assertive regional behavior combined with a nontransparent military buildup has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, an increasing threat perception in the late 1980s led to the return to a pre-1971 revisionist agenda, whereas the overt nuclearization in the late 1990s mitigated India's growing conventional superiority and enabled Islamabad to replace soft balancing with more direct means of hard balancing.
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