| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article assesses the recent attempts to reform the Russian military and the future prospects of successful reform. Despite serious social and economic ailments, Russia should still be able to modernize its military; however the key obstacles to reform lie in its leadership's inability to shape existing resources into military capabilities. First, the article examines the decay in Russia's manpower, defense budgeting, and defense industrial base. Second, the article surveys the security environment in which Russia must tailor these strategic resources. However, the state of these resources and Russia's security needs do not justify the capabilities that the Russian military has developed. Therefore, the article identifies Russia's inability to transform resources into capabilities as the missing link in military reform. Specifically, these poor 'conversion capabilities' include dysfunctional civil-military relations, misguided threat assessment and strategy formulation, and opaque doctrine. Finally, the article concludes that absent any external existential threats or a military disaster, successful military reform is unlikely, with implications for both the threshold at which Russia decides nuclear weapons are necessary as well as its perceived need for strategic depth.
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