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| 1 |
ID:
132625
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether the long memory behavior observed in many volatility energy futures markets series is a spurious behavior or not. For this purpose, we employ a wide variety of advanced volatility models that allow for long memory and/or structural changes: the GARCH(1,1), the FIGARCH(1,d,1), the Adaptative-GARCH(1,1,k), and the Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) models. To compare forecasting ability of these models, we use out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and propane volatility futures energy time series with 1-month and 3-month maturities, we found that five out of the eight time series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. For these series, dates of breaks coincide with some major economics and financial events. For the three other time series, we found strong evidence of long memory in volatility.
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| 2 |
ID:
132480
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Political instability, economic Volatility, the rise of the right-wing political leadership and an increase in the number of terrorist organisations operating from Pakistan and gaining the support of the Pakistani establishment have nations concerned about the safety of the nuclear assets within Pakistan. Adding to the problem is the well documented proliferation network that has supplied nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran, with Pakistan, at its centre. These actions have increased the problems and challenges that nuclear proliferation poses. The proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, associated technology and/ or nuclear material to any state or non-state actor, not recognised to receive such technology or material, is one of the most serious dangers to the international security environment. This contributes to not just regional instability and global proliferation, but also increases the risk of violent non-state groups obtaining a nuclear weapon, with a number of violent extremist groups opposed to
India operating from Pakistan. These issues have raised concerns among the international community about the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons. For the United States, Pakistan poses a serious dilemma. Pakistan has been an 'ally' of the United States during the Cold War and continues.
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