| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Innovation is fundamental to a space agency's mission. Yet, the industry's current dominant approach to new technology development - concerted investment in step-changes in capabilities to support a particular application - contradicts the conventional wisdom of innovation theory. In order to understand why, this paper uses a unique empirical case study, in which exogenous historical circumstances created unexpected additional opportunities for technology investment, to explore the merits of this approach. The value of follow-on periods of R&D is assessed in terms of simple marginal returns, implications for workforce dynamics and the interaction of mission sequencing and technology strategy. The analysis reveals an important contingency between mission paradigm and the value of follow-on investment. Specifically, while marginal performance improvements can be achieved at lower costs, their value depends on the availability of an appropriate mission opportunity. In the current paradigm, the risk of obsolescence is high compared to the potential benefit. However, if a new small mission, frequent flights, paradigm were to take hold, there may be great value in refocusing R&D strategy on later round improvements.
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