| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China×s economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China×s 2050 energy consumption and associated CO2 reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200-5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035-2040; (2) CO2 emissions will peak at 9200-9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030-2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200-300 Mt; (3) China×s per capita energy consumption and per capita CO2 emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020-2030, soon after China steps into the high income group.
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