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ID:
134028
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no Granger causal link is found between military expenditure and GDP for 1951-2010, but parameter instability tests show the estimated VARs to be unstable. Using a bootstrap rolling window estimation procedure, however, finds evidence of bidirectional Granger causality in various subsamples. This implies standard Granger non-causality tests, which neither account for structural breaks nor time variation may be invalid.
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| 2 |
ID:
139279
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author analyzes the impact of the current Ukrainian crisis on the political structure of the post-Soviet region and national security of the Azerbaijan Republic. The events that have been unfolding in Ukraine since 2014 can be described as the acutest crisis in the relations between the Russian Federation and the West since the end of the Cold War, while the emerging situation is fraught with changes at the regional level and in the security context of all the post-Soviet states.
At the regional level, these changes have added to structural instability and, hence, transitivity. Azerbaijan, as a regional state, is facing greater structural risks accompanied by much fewer economic and political opportunities to implement its national security strategy.
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