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| 1 |
ID:
134883
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| Summary/Abstract |
It is widely acknowledged that large-scale urbanization plays a pivotal role in China's miraculous economic growth over the past two decades. Yet many of the basic statistics and facts remain disputable. The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, based on the publicly available 2000 and 2010 census data, plus some auxiliary information from other sources, we develop an accounting method to back out the scale and composition of China's urbanization. We find that urbanization accounts for 80.4% of the total urban population growth of 211 million in the 2000s. Moreover, more than half of the urbanized population, about 85.6 million, is due to rural–urban migration. Our findings suggest that rural–urban migration increased by two thirds from the 1990s to 2000s, while the population urbanized by land reclassification is roughly the same across the two periods.
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| 2 |
ID:
134892
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| Summary/Abstract |
In China, higher education admissions are rigorously based on the total scores of admission tests. Admission subject tests, however, each have different relationships with undergraduate academic performance. Undergraduate academic performance is an important reference variable in applying for graduate schools and finding employment. Admission measures considering the relative importance of subject tests could be employed to select academically more able applicants. Subjects comprise Chinese, mathematics, English, and a comprehensive subject. Data are collected from a national key university in China. The empirical results show that the correlation of subject tests with undergraduate academic performance always differs, and that the pattern varies according to admission track and academic discipline in the university. The conclusions are robust to different specifications and over time. Policy implications are also discussed.
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| 3 |
ID:
134873
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| Summary/Abstract |
Over the reform period, industry has been the source of 40% of GDP, and has contributed 90% of China's exports. Annual firm-level surveys that begin in 1992, complemented with industry-wide census in 1995, 2004 and 2008, are rich sources of data on firm behavior. It is well-known that working with Chinese data requires overcoming difficult measurement issues. Macroeconomic series, for example, are often suspected of suffering from reporting bias and political interference. Working with the firm-level data has its own challenges. In this paper, we provide an introduction to these data sets. We discuss and illustrate several of the issues that make comparability over time difficult and suggest solutions. The importance of a particular measurement issue often depends on the exact application. We illustrate this point by tracing the evolution of the relative productivity level of entrants and incumbents over time, distinguishing between changes in actual performance and changes driven by measurement problems. We conclude by identifying a few promising areas of future research and margins on which collaboration among users to improve these data might be beneficial
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| 4 |
ID:
134889
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| Summary/Abstract |
In recent years China has experienced a substantial increase in rural schooling levels and contemporaneous reforms in rural educational policies, including the nationwide adoption of free nine-year compulsory education, the two exempt and one compensation program, and the school consolidation policy. These developments point to the possibility that the determinants of rural education have changed. In this paper we examine empirically the determinants of rural high school attainment between 2002 and 2007. Using data from a nationwide household survey and a multilevel regression model with and without instrumental variables, we estimate the relationship between rural high school attainment and individual, family, and community level variables. We find that the size and significance of household income and other individual and household variables declined, while community characteristics and local public expenditures on schools continued to have a significant impact in both years. When we carry out the estimation using instrumental variables, the coefficients on parental education are no longer significant. We conclude that policy changes plus rapid income growth in rural China has brought about substantial change in the determinants of high school attainment, and that the widely observed correlation between parental and child education may be due to unobserved characteristics.
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| 5 |
ID:
134890
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| Summary/Abstract |
We document the sharp expansion of higher education in China beginning in 1999 and analyze its impacts on the unemployment of college graduates, using nationally representative population surveys from 2000 and 2005. We show that the expansion policy has increased the probability of college attendance among high school graduates. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that China's expansion policy has sharply increased the unemployment rate among young college graduates, and that the unemployment rate for college graduates increases more in non-coastal (especially central) regions than in large coastal cities. We suggest that encouraging regional mobility of college graduates and increasing matching quality can potentially reduce the unemployment rate at the national level.
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| 6 |
ID:
134893
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper justifies the evolution of the college admissions system in China from a mechanism design perspective. The sequential choice algorithm and the parallel choice algorithm used in the context of China's college admissions system are formulated as the well-studied Boston mechanism and the Simple Serial Dictatorship mechanism. We review both theoretical and experimental mechanism design literature in similar assignment problems. Studies show that the Boston mechanism does not eliminate justified envy, is not strategy-proof and is not Pareto-efficient. The Simple Serial Dictatorship mechanism eliminates justified envy, is strategy-proof and is Pareto-efficient, thus outperforming the Boston mechanism in all three criteria. This result provides justification for the transition in recent years from the sequential choice algorithm to the parallel choice algorithm in China's college admissions practices.
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| 7 |
ID:
134853
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the extent to which idiosyncratic shocks to the permanent income of various provinces in China were mitigated through the channel of provincial risk-sharing during 1952–2008. Taking into account the possibility of self-insurance through saving, we find that provinces in China shared roughly 38% of their idiosyncratic output shocks during the entire sample period. In particular, we show that conventional risk-sharing analysis in the extant literature that does not take into account the self-insurance channel tends to over-estimate the degree of risk sharing by implying a degree of risk sharing of around 54%. Moreover, in view of the major economic reforms that had taken place in the last few decades, we decompose the sample period into two sub-phases: the pre-reform period (1952–1978), the reform period (1978–2008). We find that there is a notable increase in the degree of provincial risk sharing in the reform period. The degree of provincial risk sharing across China is comparable to that across the OECD countries, but falls short of that among the states in the US.
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| 8 |
ID:
134878
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper discusses data used in publishing statistics on earnings, the distribution of household income and poverty in China by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which is widely used by policy makers, international agencies and researchers. Unlike many other countries, China until recently had a dual system of household surveys — one rural and one urban. This has had consequences for providing official data on wages, income and poverty which we discuss along with other challenges. Since the end of the 1980s, researchers have been active in the construction of large databases aimed at mapping earnings, household income and poverty, and we present seven of these in the paper.
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| 9 |
ID:
134866
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents a model of resource management for resource exporters to analyse how the persistence of resource intensive growth in China should affect the depletion of non-renewable resources imported by China. We show that the depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of China's resource import demand times the world interest rate and growth in China's resource import demand. Results indicate that: the temporary increase in China's demand associated with stockpiling resources raises the level of resources extracted for export to China, but does not affect the rate at which resources are depleted over time; the growth in China's demand for resource imports and exponential rise in prices during the contemporary resources boom reduces the rate at which resources should be depleted over time; the depletion rate picks up towards the end of the boom as the growth in China's demand is set to slow. Patterns in the depletion rate of iron ore exported to China, 2001–2011 are in line with the theory.
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| 10 |
ID:
134894
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| Summary/Abstract |
Each year, millions of Chinese high school students sit the National College Entrance Examination (CEE). For the majority of students, the CEE score is the single determinant in whether they gain admission into a college and to what college they enter. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how well the CEE score predicts college academic success. We also consider high school achievement and admission route in predicting college grades. We obtain administrative data on CEE and undergraduate GPAs from two Chinese universities with very different rankings. We find that, for both universities the CEE total score predicts undergraduate GPAs for all four years in college. Even the size of the estimates for CEE is similar for the two universities. High school achievement and admission routes are also significant predictors of college grades. However, we do not find consistent results as to which CEE subject test scores predict students' academic performance in college.
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| 11 |
ID:
134868
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| Summary/Abstract |
Rural-to-urban migrant workers are an under-represented group in China's health insurance system, and the status of their health and healthcare draws increasing attention. This paper uses the 2007–2010 State Council URBMI Household Survey data to evaluate the efficacy of major health insurance programs in improving the accessibility, affordability and appropriateness of healthcare among migrant workers. Based on the instrumental variable (IV) estimation that accounts for the endogeneity of insurance participation, we find that the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) is most effective in promoting physical exams and improving self-rated health status for migrant workers, while the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NRCMS), the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) and commercial insurance show significant benefits in boosting preventive care utilization. However, the current programs are not effective in alleviating the financial burden of healthcare and promoting formal medical utilization among migrant workers, possibly due to the lack of systematic financing scheme for outpatient treatment and the segmentation between insurance platforms. Our study provides implications on reforming China's medical insurance system and migrant health policies.
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| 12 |
ID:
134870
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| Summary/Abstract |
The present study examines the economic returns to English proficiency for college graduates in Mainland China, paths through which English proficiency may affect earnings, and possible moderation effects and crowding-out effects of English proficiency on other human capital. The analysis results indicate that English proficiency had significant effects on college graduates' starting salaries, their probability of changing permanent residence status from rural to urban, and their future earning potential. Possible reasons for the economic returns to English proficiency include increased chances of working in the employment sector where the average income was higher than in the other sectors and improved opportunities of landing job interviews. English proficiency may mitigate the effects of GPA rankings on salaries. Meanwhile, it did not seem to have been achieved at the expense of other important human capital investments. The results have policy implications as well as contributing to the literature.
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| 13 |
ID:
134855
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| Summary/Abstract |
We study the effects of political participation on holdings of liquid assets in Chinese privately controlled listed firms. Previous research has shown that the risk of political extraction by politicians and bureaucrats in countries with weak institutions has an adverse effect on holdings of liquid assets. We propose that political participation by private entrepreneurs can function as a means to alleviate some of that risk. We find that political participation in China is positively related to cash holdings in regions with weaker institutions. Our results also show that investments in “hard” assets such as PPE and inventories, which are less susceptible to the grabbing hand, are higher in regions with weaker institutions, but that political participation mitigates this effect. Finally, cash holdings have an insignificantly positive effect on firm value on its own, while political participation is positively associated with firm value. The interaction between cash holdings and political participation is positively related to firm value, again suggesting that political participation facilitates the holding of liquid assets in China, which in turn results in better firm performance.
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| 14 |
ID:
134874
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines sectoral contributions to discrepancies between China's national aggregate statistical values and the sum of provincial figures. In institutional terms, the paper then explores the sources of principally sectoral discrepancies. We find that the industrial sector has been the major contributor to discrepancies in both gross domestic product (GDP) and total energy consumption in recent years. Technical aspects such as statistical coverage, data collection method, and double-counting cannot explain the discrepancy. For the industrial sector, limited data accessibility undermines external checks and balances from the general public. As the primary bodies in collecting industrial data, the Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBSs) are not subject to effective internal checks and balances from other governmental divisions. To out-compete counterparts and get promoted, provincial leaders have explicit incentives to overstate provincial GDP, with industrial added value being the first statistic to be affected. This dynamic further extends to industrial energy consumption, which is over-reported as well
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| 15 |
ID:
134864
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.
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| 16 |
ID:
134867
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| Summary/Abstract |
We study the impact of both microeconomic factors and the macroeconomy on the financial distress of Chinese listed companies over a period of massive economic transition, 1995 to 2006. Based on an economic model of financial distress under the institutional setting of state protection against exit, and using our own firm-level measure of distress, we find important impacts of firm characteristics, macroeconomic instability and institutional factors on the hazard rate of financial distress. The results are robust to unobserved heterogeneity at the firm level, as well as those shared by firms in similar macroeconomic founding conditions. Comparison with related studies for China and other economies highlights important policy implications.
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| 17 |
ID:
134891
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the relationship between employee turnover, HRM practices and innovation in Chinese firms in five high technology sectors. We estimate hurdle negative binomial models for count data on survey data allowing for analyses of the extensive as well as intensive margins of firms' innovation activities. Innovation is measured both by the number of ongoing projects and new commercialized products. The results show that higher R&D employee turnover is associated with a higher probability of being innovative, but decreases the intensity of innovation activities in innovating firms. Innovating firms are more likely to have adopted high performance HRM practices, and the impact of employee turnover varies with the number of HRM practices implemented by the firm.
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| 18 |
ID:
134880
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper utilizes a previously unavailable database on the commodity transactions of firms to analyze internal trade in China. This database is built from value-added tax (VAT) invoices collected under a comprehensive management information system, the Golden Tax Project (GTP). This project was established in 1994 to monitor and administer VAT collection and has been improved over the subsequent years. We present the structure, function, and evolution of the GTP, which provides reliable information on transaction values across provinces. We have access only to part of the GTP data set relevant to internal trade. The data suggests that internal trade in China has grown quickly but with seasonal fluctuations. Although the interprovincial trade in China is smaller than the interstate trade in United States and the intra-European Union trade, the high growth rate of the interprovincial trade suggests that economic connections among the provinces are strengthening. The positive relationship between internal trade and international trade in most regressions suggests the possible complementarity between these two types of trade.
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| 19 |
ID:
134860
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using a sample of 1185 households in 48 Chinese villages for the period 1987–2002, we study the effects of major health shocks on household income and the role played by village elections in mitigating these effects. Major health shocks are defined by abnormal increases in a household's medical expenditure. Our results show that a major health shock reduces households' net income significantly and that village elections alleviate such adverse impacts by almost half. The main mechanism behind this effect is increased coverage of health care insurance, which helps households smooth their consumption when major health shocks happen.
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| 20 |
ID:
134872
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.
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