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| 1 |
ID:
158900
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| Summary/Abstract |
There is no convincing evidence to prove that China's Lewis turning point (LTP) arrived in 2004–2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami (1968) to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China's economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China's eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China's rural economy will face three key tasks: safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.
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| 2 |
ID:
134863
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the impact of an observable “shock”, the birth of a son, on household financial activities in rural China. We propose theoretical channels that endogenously generate heterogeneity in the levels of financial activities on the basis of a child's gender, even if parents do not possess discriminatory tastes, which we refer to as the “invest via a son” hypothesis compared to the conventional “taste for a son” explanation. Using nationally representative household data collected in 300 rural Chinese villages and econometric models that account for censored financial activities as well as endogenous fertility choices such as sex selection, we present strong evidence that having a son increases the amount of gifts and remittances a household receives from others by over 20%; it also increases both the amounts that a family loans and gives to relatives and friends. Moreover, having a son is found to increase household investments in both agricultural activities and family businesses while no type of expenditure increase with the arrival of a son, clearly consistent with our “invest via a son” hypothesis. Taken together, these results suggest that social conventions play important roles in household financial decisions that extend beyond the traditional role of budget constraints and consumption shocks.
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