| Publication |
2002.
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| Description |
69-86
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| Summary/Abstract |
Nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be an unimaginable humanitarian disaster. The amount of outside assistance necessary to alleviate human suffering and to manage nuclear fallout throughout the region would be staggering. Such a conflict would also have consequences well beyond the subcontinent. The nuclear taboo, which has been in place for over five decades, would be shattered. If one side prevails decisively, others may come to view nuclear weapons as ‘normal weapons’ that can be used successfully to achieve political goals. A nuclear war could lead to two failed states on the subcontinent, permanently traumatising societies and disrupting the broader geopolitical order in Asia. The remnants of nuclear infrastructure could then fall into the hands of rogue commanders or terrorists, raising the prospect of multiple, nuclear-armed Afghanistans. A new strategy to lessen these dangers carries risks, but the potential costs of inaction are much higher. If they fail to grapple with the problem, the United States and other leading states should not be surprised if nuclear deterrence in South Asia fails.
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