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| 1 |
ID:
136421
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| Summary/Abstract |
Armenia does not have direct access to the sea, and its land transportation opportunities are limited due to the conflict with Azerbaijan and its support by Turkey.
Armenia is extremely transport-dependent on Russia. For example, JSC Russian Railways, which is essentially not interested in revolving the urgent problems of the country’s transportation system, is the concession operator of Armenia’s railways.
These complicated transportation and communication conditions create geopolitical and geo-economic threats for Armenia; if they are not dealt with, making successful basic changes and raising the country’s economic competitiveness will be inconceivable.
This article identifies the problems Armenia’s railway system faces and highlights regional transit issues from the perspective of the main development characteristics of landlocked countries.
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ID:
136417
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This article examines the special features, trends, and dynamics of Iranian-Turkish relations in Central Asia (CA) in anticipation of removal of the sanctions from Iran and transformation of the entire international relations system. It analyzes the specifics of Turkey’s current Central Asian approaches and identifies the key external factors that are influencing the development of its relations with the region’s countries from the outside.
The author examines the new aspects of Ankara’s Central Asian strategy from this viewpoint, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran’s (IRI) role in it. The author also stresses the importance of what she considers to be the main factors: Euro-Atlantic (the U.S. and EU) and Eurasian (Russia, China).
The article closes by noting that the increasing pragmatism and rationalism in the present approaches of Turkey and Iran is allowing them to establish balanced and restrained cooperation with the CA countries, keeping in mind their common historical-cultural and spiritual heritage, as well as the prospects for potentially mutually advantageous partnership within the framework of the planned New Silk Road energy transportation corridors.
In so doing, Iran or Turkey gaining a stronger position in the current system of relations will depend not only on resolving the current Iranian-American and other interstate problems, but also on the efficiency of their regional strategies and the degree to which the CA countries’ interests are observed.
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| 3 |
ID:
136420
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| Summary/Abstract |
When the Soviet Union collapsed, newly independent states appeared on the shores of the Caspian and in expanses of Central Asia, the horizons of which have significantly widened due to the development of hydrocarbon reserves. This has been essentially promoted by the formation of export pipelines in the east-west direction. We will note that the Soviet pipeline system was created in the north-south direction and intended for managing flows of oil and gas in the interests of the entire state. As for the new hydrocarbon-rich states of the Caspian Region and Central Asia, changing the direction of energy flows has become a key task of their foreign and domestic policy. It is no accident that in the last 15-20 years, regional and extra-regional players have become involved in an extremely intense fight for access to the Caspian’s oil and gas, as well as actively engaged in building infrastructure for their transportation to the consumers.1
At the same time, despite the many forecasts of various research centers and oil and gas companies, the production of hydrocarbons and implementation of pipeline projects has been very slow. The reasons for this include the lack of modern technology in the production branches, undeveloped infrastructure, insufficient financing, and low demand for hydrocarbons from extra-regional states. This is why the forecasts about hydrocarbon production volumes and delivery deadlines from the Caspian Region and Central Asia to the external markets are largely unreliable.
Nevertheless, in the past 20 years, the Caspian and Central Asian countries have succeeded in forming new energy flows and their fields are capable of satisfying the growing needs of the European countries and China for oil and gas.
Among the large-scale hydrocarbon delivery projects being discussed, special mention can be made of the Southern Gas Corridor, the Trans-Caspian Hydrocarbon Transportation System, the Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation System, and the Great Energy Road, each of which is a separate pipeline. These projects are aimed at creating a new pipeline structure called upon to ensure the delivery of hydrocarbons in the east-west direction.
Energy flows are irrevocably tied to the hydrocarbon resources of Kazakhstan (the gas condensate field of Karachaganak and the oil fields of Kashagan and Tengiz), Turkmenistan (the gas field of Galkynysh), and Azerbaijan (the oil field of Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli and the gas field of Shah Deniz).
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ID:
136414
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The Ferghana Valley and FATA, two areas of regional importance, are gathering global consequence. Their unique geographic/geopolitical location and security issues have made them the main reference objects of Central and South Asian regional security complexes. In the era of the global war on terror, they are growing increasingly attractive for terrorists and extremists. The Ferghana Valley and FATA share a common legacy: the divide and rule policy of colonial powers alienated ethnic, cultural, and civilizational units and created a circumstance responsible for the current and future processes in these regions. The share of security factors (the triad “interests-threats-security), however, in the Ferghana Valley and FATA is not identical.
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ID:
136415
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author analyzes the dynamics of Russian-American relations in the Greater Caucasus throughout the twenty-odd post-Soviet years, reveals the main development trends, and assesses the degree of confrontation and possibility of cooperation on the key regional issues in the context of the latest developments.
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ID:
136425
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| Summary/Abstract |
The authors analyze Islam as one of the most important, if not decisive, factors responsible for the country’s future; they reveal the specifics of its functioning in Afghan society as the state religion, investigate in great detail the contradictions between individual groups and organizations involved in the conflict of the last quarter of the twentieth century, and examine their impact on the social and economic relations in the region. The sides in the conflict belong to different ethnic, confessional, and political groups. The continued disagreements between the official Muslim clergy and government in Afghanistan are a truthful reflection of the degree to which Islam affects the state’s life-supporting spheres and figure prominently in ethnic strife and tribal enmity, along with all kinds of external factors that keep the conflict alive.
The article looks at the main Islamist organizations that will figure prominently on Afghanistan’s domestic scene for several decades to come.
The authors believe that in the current conditions, Islam has ceased to be a factor of social stability and unity in Afghanistan.
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| 7 |
ID:
136423
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Over the last decade, Azerbaijan and especially Kazakhstan have become the largest individual donors after Russia of official humanitarian aid among the republics of the former U.S.S.R. This article examines the quantities, channels, and underlying dynamics and interests of this aid and compares it with the wider global trend of the emergence or re-emergence of aid donors outside the dominant OECD bloc. Azerbaijan and especially Kazakhstan want to translate their new economic capacity into political clout and international and regional initiative, including different ways and channels of soft power like aid. They thereby eclectically use elements, policy concepts, and institutions of the international aid system and attach aid to a conditionality that is not related to governance, human rights, or democratization, but to diplomatic and economic returns.
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| 8 |
ID:
136419
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author analyzes the stages, prerequisites, and factors relating to the political transformation in Kyrgyzstan. If it succeeds, the Republic will be able to integrate into the worldwide globalization processes based on the values of democracy.
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| 9 |
ID:
136424
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Since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asia assumed renewed importance in Iranian foreign policy. The region has played a significant role in Iran’s historical geography, and Persian cultural influence continues to felt in the region today. Iran has sought to present itself as a “status-quo” power in its bilateral and multilateral approaches to Central Asia, something that is in marked contrast to the historical geography highlighted in Western media analyses of its foreign policy. This paper focuses on how Iran has made use of its historical cultural weight in the region to further its influence, something that is evident in its increasing activity in fellow Persian-speaking nations of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. As such, the paper will demonstrate how Iran has sought to present a pragmatic face to the region, one that draws on its own cultural levers as a way of expanding its influence.
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| 10 |
ID:
136422
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This article analyzes the growing role of migrants’ remittances in the new reality created by the significant changes in the functioning of the global and national economy. It attempts to show that economic development based on the use of primarily recurring external financial sources pegged to indicators of threshold values of the external debt under formation and indicators for retaining macroeconomic stability is creating significant risks.
The author examines the dynamics of the volume of migrants’ remittances in this respect, as well as their importance for Tajikistan’s economic and social development, particularly in ensuring the country’s macroeconomic stability. This is shown in the drawing up of a new National Mid-Term Development Strategy.
The article also states the need for taking efficient steps to transform remittances into investment and financial assets; in the near future, they should be used to create the country’s production potential. This will create conditions not only for making the Tajik economy less dependent on external factors, but also allow it to gain additional advantages from its accession to the WTO.
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| 11 |
ID:
136416
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author discusses individual aspects of Russia’s strategy in post-Soviet Central Asia and the extent to which the means and methods of geopolitical modeling can be used for analyzing the current and future political situation. He uses certain approaches and methods to identify the geopolitical models Russia applies in the region, studies the functional interactions among large powers and the regional states, and analyzes various scenarios of the region’s development determined by geopolitical conditions and the balance of power inside the region.
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| 12 |
ID:
136418
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| Summary/Abstract |
Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan sustained a convincing victory at the presidential election held in Turkey in August 2014, receiving a nationwide mandate of trust. In tandem with the new prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, he will try to boost the country’s domestic political capital and reach new frontiers of cooperation with the main external partners. In so doing, the Turkish government will retain its balanced course in two geopolitical directions—European and Eastern.
Nevertheless, the country’s authorities will have to constantly adjust their plans regarding the adjacent regions to meet the interests of the powers having an interest there.
These efforts aim to define both the main driving forces behind Turkey’s foreign policy choice and the interests of the Western and Eastern political centers.
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