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| 1 |
ID:
137035
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| Summary/Abstract |
While several existing datasets can help to address pressing questions on nonviolent resistance, data collection on nonviolent conflict involves several distinct challenges, including (1) conceptual distinctions between the absence of violence, non-violent behavior, and nonviolent direct action; (2) a systematic violence bias in mainstream news reports; and (3) incentives to misrepresent. As a way forward, we advocate (1) collecting data at multiple temporal and purposive units; (2) diversifying source materials; and (3) coding ambiguity as a meaningful substantive variable.
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| 2 |
ID:
186813
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| Summary/Abstract |
Do more protesters on the streets make governments likely to grant their demands? Several studies link protest size and government concessions. Yet existing research has limitations: many studies suffer from potential endogeneity due to potential protesters joining protests when they anticipate that concessions are likely, causal mechanisms are often unclear, and many of the most rigorous event-level studies are limited to Western democracies. We reexamine this relationship in a non-Western sample using a novel instrumental variable approach, using Fridays as an instrument for exogenous variation in protest size in predominately Muslim countries. We perform two analyses: one using the NAVCO 3.0 dataset, and the second using the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Dataset (MMAD). In both analyses exogenous variation in protest size negatively affects the likelihood of concessions. Larger protests are less likely to receive government concessions. We suggest these surprising results point to the importance of unanticipated protests that produce new information about regime stability to motivate government concessions.
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| 3 |
ID:
176171
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| Summary/Abstract |
How have activists responded to the COVID-19 pandemic? While there have been many anecdotal reports of the pandemic's impact, there has been little to no cross-national comparative research examining how movements discouraged from protesting on the streets because of the risk of infection have or have not continued their activities through the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present findings from a survey of 550 activists in 27 countries, reporting on how the pandemic has affected their perceptions of tactical adaptation, public interest, and long-term strategic planning. We also present results from a survey experiment testing the impact of COVID-19 risk and pandemic lockdown policies on activists' willingness to join a street protest. We find that while the pandemic has posed significant challenges for activists, activists believe they have been able to respond with tactical adaptation and innovations, primarily with a shift to digital activism. Most activists also perceived an increase in public interest for their movements across various issue areas and were optimistic about their movement's ability to advance its goals in the future. These findings speak to the long-term impact of COVID-19 on the potential for social mobilization and the short and projected long-term effects of the pandemic on political stability.
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