| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
137555
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The Arctic has reemerged as a region of geo-political consequence following rapid reduction in sea ice in the past decade. As the only non-NATO Arctic littoral state, Russia’s approaches to the many disputes in the region will undoubtedly have the greatest bearing on the future security environment. This article examines the two most threatening circumpolar disputes, sea bed delineation and navigation rights, and postulates that Russia’s policies on both issues conform to historical patterns. Recent Russian policy decisions are placed in historical context in order to gauge conflict potential in the Arctic related to these two disputes. The main finding is that the path-dependent trajectories of both issues are becoming ever more distinct as Russia articulates its Arctic policies. In particular, structural and historical factors encourage Moscow toward cooperation and compromise on sea bed negotiations but also suggest that Kremlin intransigence on navigation will continue, with potentially detrimental effect on regional stability.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
161035
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The idea of writing this article came to me after a roundtable discussion of the prospects of U.S.-Russia relations hosted by the Rossiya Segodnya news agency in November 2015. I argued during the discussion that relations between the two countries had entered a period which is much more dangerous than the Cold War, including the Caribbean Crisis in 1962, and received critical responses (“We were on the brink of a nuclear war back then, but there is nothing like that now,” my opponents retorted). And yet, I believe that the risk of a military conflict between Russia and the United States in the next ten to fifteen years will be much higher than it was during their bipolar standoff.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|