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ID:
166723
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| Summary/Abstract |
A number of official energy forecasts—including those compatible with the aspirational 1.5 °C Paris Accord global temperature rise limit—see both global primary and net energy use continuing to rise, even out to 2100. Various technologies, including greatly increased use of renewable and nuclear energy, negative emission technologies such as direct air capture, and geoengineering are proposed as approaches for meeting the 1.5 °C target. In contrast, we argue that meeting this target and avoiding significant increases in extreme weather events will require marked reductions in future energy demand. We argue that the combined fossil fuel and renewable net green energy production will fall in the coming decades, after subtraction of various energy costs essential for ecosystems maintenance, including those needed to stabilise climate. At best, nuclear energy will only fractionally increase its global energy share, because of its high capital costs and political opposition arising from accident risks, waste disposal and proliferation concerns. Geoengineering will not solve fossil fuel depletion, and has serious known—and perhaps unknown—risks. We conclude that global net energy produced in an ecologically sustainable manner will start falling in a decade or so, and suggest the need to account for this at a policy level by introduction of a green EROI—EROIg.
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| 2 |
ID:
137652
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| Summary/Abstract |
Cumulative energy demand (CED) estimates from life cycle assessments (LCAs) are increasingly used to determine energy return on investment (EROI), but the difference in indicators can lead to a misclassification of energy flows in the assessment. The core idea of EROI is to measure the relation of energy diverted from society to make energy available to society. CED, on the other hand, includes forms of energy that are not appropriated by society, such as fugitive methane emissions from oil wells as well as losses of heating value of coal during transport and storage. Such energy forms should be excluded from EROI; failure to do so leads to results that are inconsistent with the intention of EROI and potentially misleading. We demonstrate how this problem is at least partially rectifiable by adopting consistent energy accounting, but also note that among the energy flows not appropriated by society occurring in CED, not all flows can easily be removed. Further, we point to inconsistencies in heating value assumptions in a widely used database that have misled analysts. Finally, we argue that the differential weighting of primary energy forms in published CED-based EROI work is unsubstantiated and should be reconsidered.
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| 3 |
ID:
166544
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the key paths for mitigating air pollution following the paths of the source control and end-of-pipe control. We conduct performance analysis in terms of energy consumption and pollution emission from the regional perspective, and identify the appropriate path for each region of China. Our findings show that sulfur dioxide, primary energy consumption and energy-related carbon emission have become the main sources of inefficiency in the sense of the atmosphere environment pollution. Furthermore, we facilitate decomposition of the Luenberger productivity indicator (LPI) with regards to input/output variables and productivity change sources. The average annual productivity change for China is 1.36% over 2006–2013. LPI change associated with energy and pollutant variables shows the gradient which increases from southeast coast to west inland and decreases from north to south. This pattern implies the government needs to enhance the environmental regulation in the western regions. Moreover, the provinces are divided into five groups to identify the corresponding paths (source or end-of-pipe control). According to our identification, we suggest that local government should perform diversified policies suitably to strengthen source or end-of-pipe governance. This allows setting the targets for the government and further improving the effectiveness of policy measures within each region.
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