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CRIJNS-GRAUS, WINA (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   137699


Ex-ante evaluation of EU ETS during 2013–2030: EU-internal abatement / Hu, Jing; Crijns-Graus, Wina ; Lam, Long ; Gilbert , Alyssa   Article
Hu, Jing Article
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Summary/Abstract This study investigates CO2 emission reduction within the EU resulting from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) up to 2030. This is performed by constructing a baseline scenario without the ETS and assessing the impacts of the ETS, as currently designed. The results indicate that the ETS will start to impact emissions primarily after 2025 due to the prevalence of a sizable allowance surplus. The impact of approved (i.e. back-loading and 2.2% linear reduction factor (LRF)) and proposed (i.e. market stability reserve (MSR)) policy interventions and the inclusion of aviation,could accelerate the exhaustion of surplus and increase emission reductions during the investigated period. However, these measures would be insufficient to restore the scarcity of allowances and the corresponding carbon price before the start of ETS Phase IV, and the effectiveness of EU-internal abatement cannot be guaranteed until 2023. The effectiveness could be further reduced in the case of the economic shocks or the exclusion of international aviation. To restore the scarcity of allowances, other reform options are necessary. This paper extends the reasoning for the early removal of the back-loaded 900 Mtonne allowances by 2020 and broadening the scope of ETS to other sectors with potential high demand for allowances.
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2
ID:   180845


Unhiding the role of CHP in power & heat sector decomposition analyses / Harmsen, Robert; Crijns-Graus, Wina   Journal Article
Harmsen, Robert Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract In many countries the role of combined heat & power (CHP) generation in the power & heat sector is significant. However, in decomposition analyses of the power & heat sector the contribution of CHP to observed changes in primary energy use or CO2 emissions is generally not made explicit. In this paper, the contribution of CHP is shown for eight countries (China, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the USA) in the period 2005–2016. In addition, an alternative method is proposed for power & heat sector decomposition analysis with five driving factors: volume effect, subsector effect, heat effect, fuel mix effect and efficiency effect. This method combines indicators from existing decomposition methods and complements them with a CHP specific heat effect. The proposed method provides improved insight in the factors driving change in primary energy use or CO2 emissions in the power and heat sector, especially in case changes take place regarding either 1) the power-to-heat ratio, 2) the share of CHP electricity in total electricity production, 3) the CHP fuel mix, and/or 4) the efficiency of individual CHP fuels.
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