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ID:
140995
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since the early 2000s, the Government of Japan has undertaken intensive efforts to reform its Intelligence Community (IC) in response to recent rapid changes of the national security environment surrounding Japan, such as increasing threats of terrorism, and North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, among others. The major objectives have been: (1) establishing an effective institutional mechanism connecting policymakers and the IC and (2) improving intelligence collection capabilities.
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| 2 |
ID:
140991
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| Summary/Abstract |
One of the more charming and frustrating aspects of American life is the endless pursuit of perfection. Americans tend to believe, as a people, that things can always be improved. For many aspects of life—science, medicine, transportation safety, etc.—this is a worthwhile approach. But for other aspects of life this pursuit is really a chimera, an illusory, unattainable goal. Indeed, in some areas pursuing it may be even more costly than not pursuing it.
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| 3 |
ID:
163721
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the wake of 9/11 and the war in Iraq, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence adopted Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203 – a list of analytic tradecraft standards – and appointed an ombudsman charged with monitoring their implementation. In this paper, we identify three assumptions behind ICD203: (1) tradecraft standards can be employed consistently; (2) tradecraft standards sufficiently capture the key elements of good reasoning; and (3) good reasoning leads to more accurate judgments. We then report on two controlled experiments that uncover operational constraints in the reliable application of the ICD203 criteria for the assessment of intelligence products.
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