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| 1 |
ID:
180773
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes the work of US and European expert-analytical organizations that support strategic and operational decision-making. It justifies the need to establish a Research and Education Center for Humanitarian Technologies under the RF Ministry of Defense, and a network of related research and expert think tanks and educational organizations to assist the state military-political leadership in neutralizing hybrid threats and challenges to national security.
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| 2 |
ID:
092729
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25-40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20-25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94-78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124-135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96-115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today's level.
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| 3 |
ID:
023646
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Jan 2002.
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| Description |
53-61
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| 4 |
ID:
150806
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The Russian economy is highly responsive to oil price fluctuations. At the start of 2014, the country was already suffering from the weak economic growth, partly due to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and Western sanctions. The recent plunge in global oil prices put even further strain on the Russian economy. This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks, economic sanctions, and leading macroeconomic indicators in Russia. We apply a vector autoregression (VAR) to quantify the effects of oil price shocks as well as western economic sanctions on real GDP, real effective exchange rate, inflation, real fiscal expenditures, real consumption expenditures, and external trade using quarterly data from 1999:1 until 2015:1. Our results show a significant impact of oil prices on the Russian economy. We predict that Russia’s economic outlook is not very optimistic. If sanctions remain until the end of 2017, the quarter-to-quarter real GDP will contract on average by 19 percent over the next two years.
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| 5 |
ID:
171436
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The last decade was marked by a new boom of popularity for electric transport. Massive government support helped increase EV annual sales from just 2 to over 753 thousands worldwide over the ten years. Many countries and private enterprises hold extremely high hopes for electric transport, predicting the imminent abandonment of the internal combustion engines (ICE). Our research shows that in 2018 EVs are yet still unable to compete on equal footing with conventional cars. However, should government and auto manufacturers maintain the current pace of development, true competitiveness between ICE and electric vehicles can be achieved by 2035 even in the low-oil-price environment.
Our calculations indicate that by 2040, depending on the scenario, the EVs can secure an 11–28% share of the global road transport fleet. This will lead to an additional increase in global electricity consumption of 11–20%. The challenge, however, is the adaptation of power grid to the growing demand peaks due to EVs charging patterns. To maintain the course on “green” energy, global leaders in EV adoption need to double the efforts on development and implementation of energy storage technologies, otherwise, the spread of electric cars will lead to more fossil fuel consumption.
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| 6 |
ID:
087646
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Considering the possible escalation of the confrontation between the United States and an increasingly powerful China, the Korean Peninsula is of extraordinary importance to the Americans as a staging area, and demonized North Korea provides good grounds for an American military and political presence in the region. Recently, however, the lack of a unified US strategy on the North Korean issue has been apparent. This discord stems from the existence of several interest groups, each with its own point of view, in the United States.
To begin with these differences exist between those who, in the words of A. V. Vorontsov, may provisionally be called "pragmatists" and "messianics." The first group, as is clear from its sobriquet, favors a pragmatic approach to resolving the North Korean issue, and it believes that a rapid settlement on American terms would lower the level of possible tension, put an end to the "nuclear domino" trend so undesirable to Washington, and generally aid the growth of US prestige as an objective power capable of being an honest guarantor of international security
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| 7 |
ID:
109702
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2011.
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This short paper presents results from an energy forecast model for the Republic of Cyprus. The model was used during years 2010-2011 to assist national authorities in their preparation of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Cyprus in line with the requirements of European Union Directives. Major macroeconomic and price assumptions of the model are presented, and results from model application under different assumptions with regard to the evolution of energy efficiency are outlined and discussed. On the basis of these scenarios the paper discusses policy implications for Cyprus regarding the country's compliance with EU energy and climate legislation.
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| 8 |
ID:
090221
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Primary Model predicted that Barack Obama would win a narrow victory with 50.1% of the major-party vote. Obama surpassed that forecast by just a little more than one standard error (2.5). How come the model came as close as it did with a forecast issued as early as January? What prevented it from coming even closer? And what might be done to improve the model?
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| 9 |
ID:
124998
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The article examines various forecasts of the PRC's economic progress up to 2020 and 2030. Possible geopolitical consequences of the further rise of China are analyzed, including its impact on relations with the Russian Federation.
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| 10 |
ID:
132873
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Moscow, Magistr, 2013.
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| Description |
430p.Hbk
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| Standard Number |
9785977602846
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Copies: C:1/I:0,R:0,Q:0
Circulation
| Accession# | Call# | Current Location | Status | Policy | Location |
| 057862 | 303.49/DYN 057862 | Main | On Shelf | General | |
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| 11 |
ID:
104256
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
THE EXTREMELY COMPLICATED TASK of long-term forecasting calls for the systemic analysis of global trends to make concrete assessments and recommendations. It would be expedient to use such forecasting to elaborate a strategy for developing and consolidating the national security of Russia to raise the quality of life of its citizens by strengthening its international positions and impact on world processes.
Specialists at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) have gained extensive experience and developed methodologies in forecasting, allowing them to make qualitative descriptions of strategically important long-term trends. In so doing, they also take international forecasting practices into account.
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| 12 |
ID:
192719
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| Summary/Abstract |
Marine renewables – which include mainly wave, tidal and current energy – have been hailed, for the past decades, as a potential solution to support the decarbonization of the society. Portugal and Spain have been traditionally avid for the testing and demonstration of such technologies, but the implementation of marine capacity is yet marginal, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future of the sector in the region. The main objective of this article is to show a future projection of marine renewable energies in both Iberian and Macaronesian regions for 2030 to research and technological development communities. To obtain this future projection, General Morphological Analysis and advanced clustering techniques have been used. The results are divided into five groups of potential scenarios, which vary significantly due to different political, social and technological parameters. The influence of variables such as innovation speed, infrastructure implementation, and comprehensive metocean data availability emerges as pivotal determinants shaping the sector's course. The knowledge from this systematization is expected to be used by researchers, technicians, governments or by any other agency involved in marine renewable energies in Spain and Portugal, as a guidance for their new projects and research lines.
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