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| 1 |
ID:
141173
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| Summary/Abstract |
Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm-level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.
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| 2 |
ID:
141175
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This paper analyzes the short-term and long-term effects that the global economic crisis and the investment priorities of the Chinese Government's stimulus package had on Chinese migrant flows between 2008 and 2014. Combining micro-level household survey data and macro-level statistics, the authors have found that in the short run, the regional and sectoral impact of the crisis, combined with the government's investment priorities, caused a reorientation of migration routes from the export-oriented coastal provinces towards the central and western regions, from inter-provincial migration towards intra-provincial migration, and from manufacturing industry towards the construction sector. However, in the longer run, the decreasing attractiveness of the eastern region and the increasing attractiveness of the western region proved to be transitory, although the pre-crisis relative advantage of the eastern region was not fully restored. What proved to be persistent were the attractiveness of the central region and the intra-provincial migration in all three regions, and, in particular, the steady growth of migrants in the construction sector.
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| 3 |
ID:
141176
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the location choice performance of foreign direct investment (FDI) originating from small- and medium-sized multinational enterprises established in newly industrialized economies. In this study we integrate location diversification, breadth and corporate governance to examine the performance of Taiwanese enterprises investing in Chinese mainland. Examining Taiwanese manufacturing enterprises from foundational, traditional and high-technology aspects, our findings demonstrate the following: (i) diversifying the location choice negatively affects the return of assets; (ii) investments in regions with an abundant population positively affect the performance of Taiwanese traditional manufacturing enterprises; and (iii) a higher percentage of insider holdings in Taiwanese enterprises results in better FDI performance. We conclude that the performance of FDI originating from Taiwanese enterprises varies depending on industrial and governance characteristics. We suggest that the location choice for Taiwan FDI in Chinese mainland should be determined by the characteristics of the industry. Chinese mainland should attract multinational enterprises from emerging markets according to the characteristics of regions.
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| 4 |
ID:
141174
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| Summary/Abstract |
Many middle income economies have been unable to advance to become high income economies over a period of 50 years or longer, not due to the existence of middle income traps, but because of the overly broad income range in the definition of middle income economies. The middle income trap is, in essence, a growth trap, and refers to the situation in which a middle income economy experiences growth stagnation or a growth rate that is lower than that of high income economies. Nonetheless, it is hard to fully comprehend the formation of the trap solely based on growth theories. Historical data indicate that the middle income economies do not lack growth potential, and the real problem is that although their long-term average growth rates are higher than those of the high income economies, their average growth rates over a business cycle or an even longer period of time often fall below those of the high income economies. The cause of this phenomenon is neither short-term macroeconomic fluctuations nor long-term growth potential, but the frequent occurrence of financial crises in middle income economies. As a middle income economy, China is also facing the risk of a financial crisis, and the key to avoiding the middle income trap is to guard against future financial crises, preventing unsound financial liberalization and mismanagement of the corporate debt ratio.
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| 5 |
ID:
141178
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the Cobb–Douglas production function and vertical specialization share, the present paper measures the productivity spillover effects of offshore outsourcing in the Chinese manufacturing industry. We examine different production factors and the degree of openness by dividing the Chinese manufacturing industry into five major categories: capital-intensive business, technological-intensive business, labor-intensive business, open business and non-open business. The results show that offshore outsourcing is positively associated with productivity in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole, but less so in labor-intensive industries and more in capital-intensive industries. Moreover, the positive impact of outsourcing on productivity is slightly higher in open industries than in non-open industries. These results shed light on the differential spillover effects of offshore outsourcing on productivity. Our findings suggest that outsourcing structure is important to China's long-run competitive advantage. China's policy-makers should encourage further offshore capital-intensive and technology-intensive activities and focus more on outward-oriented offshore businesses.
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| 6 |
ID:
141177
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the elbow function method to determine the number of classification groups of goods and applying the K-means algorithm to classify technical goods, this paper constructs a scientific classification framework of commodity structure and then measures the changes in China's import commodity structure. It is found, first, that from 2000 to 2012, the import commodity structure in China underwent structural change. Shares of non-agricultural primary products and high-technology products increased significantly, whereas shares of low–medium-technology products and medium–high-technology products declined. Second, from 2000 to 2006, the overall technology level of China's imports declined, but then increased from 2007 to 2012. Therefore, the Chinese Government should increase the share of high-technology and extra-high-technology products in total imports to stimulate structural transformation in manufacturing industries to make full use of foreign advanced technology and to prevent stepping into a low-end import commodity structure.
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