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ID: 141968

Counterfactuals and security studies / Lebow, Richard Ned

Lebow, Richard Ned	Article
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Summary/Abstract

Cause is a cognitive shorthand, not a feature of the world. Context is almost invariably critical in shaping outcomes. For both these reasons, correlations in international relations are weak and all but useless for purposes of explanation and prediction. I develop “inefficient causation” as an alternative approach to explanation and forecasting. It divides the causal problem into two components: reasons actors have for behaving as they do, and the aggregation of the behavior of multiple actors. Both make use of comparative and counterfactual analysis.

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Security Studies ; Counterfactuals ; International Relations ; Correlations

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ID: 156463

Impact of intra-industry trade on business cycle synchronization in East Asia / Li, Linyue

Li, Linyue	Journal Article
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This paper empirically analyzes distinctions between intra- and inter-industry trade indices. The research indicates that the co-movements of business cycles are influenced more through the intra-industry trade channel than by the total volume of trade itself. As trade integration among Asian countries increased, business cycle synchronization among these countries was expected to expand through trade transmission. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization will induce less synchronized business cycles, while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Moreover, I find that increased business cycle synchronization, as one of the optimum currency area criteria, is overemphasized.

Key Words

Intra-Industry Trade ; Correlations ; Business Cycle Synchronization

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