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ID: 143398

Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China? / Wu, Guiying Laura; Feng , Qu ; Li, Pei

Wu, Guiying Laura	Article
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Summary/Abstract

Budget deficit has been a common fiscal pressure facing Chinese cities since the 1994 fiscal reform. Meanwhile, land lease sales have become a significant off-budgetary revenue to local governments since 2003. This paper investigates whether financing budget deficit is an important driving force of the recent soaring housing prices when local governments function as the monopoly supplier of urban land. A conceptual framework is developed to illustrate a transmission mechanism from budget deficit to housing prices. This leads to an empirical model consisting of two simultaneous structural equations for housing prices and land prices. Using data for the 35 major Chinese cities from 2003 to 2011, an empirical exercise shows that although budget deficit has a positive effect on land prices, it is the factors from demand side, such as amenities, income and the user cost of housing capital, that have been pulling up the housing prices.

Key Words

Public Finance ; Chinese Economy ; Housing Prices ; Land Prices

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ID: 161843

Holding the market under the stimulus plan: Local government financing vehicles' land purchasing behavior in China / Huang, Zhonghua

Huang, Zhonghua	Journal Article
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China's stimulus plan in 2009–2010 brought local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and new types of land finance into the spotlight. This paper uses national parcel-level land transaction data to examine the causes and consequences of LGFVs' land purchasing behavior in China. We found that LGFVs overbid significantly in terms of land prices. We explore channels through which LGFVs bid high prices for land. The stimulus plan induced local government to increase debt and rely more on land-based mortgages and land leasing revenue. Fiscal pressure led to an increase in LGFVs bidding for land. We found that the stimulus plan changed local governments' control over land leasing and land finance. Local governments hold more of the land market and inflate land prices following implementation of the stimulus plan.

Key Words

China ; Land Finance ; Land Prices ; Local Government Financing Vehicle ; Stimulus Plan

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