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BANG, MARTIN (3) answer(s).
 
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ID:   146624


Influences on threat assessment in a military context / Bang, Martin; Liwång, Hans   Journal Article
Bang, Martin Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.
Key Words Institutions  ;  Intelligence  ;  Anchoring  ;  Threat Assessment  ;  Rule-In-Use 
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2
ID:   143748


Pitfalls in military quantitative intelligence analysis: incident reporting in a low intensity conflict / Bang, Martin   Article
Bang, Martin Article
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Summary/Abstract Incidents are the key data for several of the statistical reports and analyses created within the military intelligence community. This paper discusses factors that affect the utility of quantitative methods in military intelligence analysis when used in a low intensity conflict. The first half of the paper presents the general critique of the use of quantitative methods. The second half applies this critique to the case of incident reporting in Afghanistan.
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3
ID:   153161


Shared epistemological view within military intelligence institutions / Bang, Martin   Journal Article
Bang, Martin Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Understanding how military intelligence institutions function and the influence of the analysis they produce is central to any attempt to improve intelligence assessments. This understanding can be achieved in several different ways; among them are the shared beliefs within the institution. The challenge is how to identify a shared belief system. One way is to analyze the shared definitions of central concepts within the institution.
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