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ID:
172335
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| Summary/Abstract |
What sustains commitment to rebel fighting during civil war? Using original survey data from the ongoing conflict in Syria, we examine whether self-ascribed rebel fighters, former fighters, civilians, and refugees can be clearly differentiated based on commitment to rebellion. We ask whether such groups are better characterized as a broadly holistic fighting community or a heterogeneous mix of actors with different levels of support for violence. Using a well-balanced sample of over 300 active and former rebel fighters, civilians from within the conflict zone, and externally displaced refugees, we observe that fighting commitment is greater among active combatants compared to other cohorts. To understand why, we examine underexplored psychological mechanisms and find that individuals with higher risk tolerance, optimism bias, and identity fusion with rebel forces display greater dedication to fighting. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding who participates in civil war violence and why.
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| 2 |
ID:
144153
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| Summary/Abstract |
The UK experience with defence inflation and cost escalation is described and analysed. Evidence is presented and policy solutions are reviewed. Optimism bias is a source of cost escalation and this bias is analysed with game theory and public choice models. The key facts remain, namely, that defence inflation exceeds the GDP deflator, and despite various reforms, cost escalation continues.
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