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ID: 172817

Radicalization Trajectories: an Evidence-Based Computational Approach to Dynamic Risk Assessment of “Homegrown” Jihadists / Klausen, Jytte

Klausen, Jytte	Journal Article
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The research aimed to develop and test a new dynamic approach to preventive risk assessment of violent extremists. The well-known New York Police Department four-phase model was used as a starting point for the conceptualization of the radicalization process, and time-stamped biographical data collected from court documents and other public sources on American homegrown Salafi-jihadist terrorism offenders were used to test the model. Behavioral sequence patterns that reliably anticipate terrorist-related criminality were identified and the typical timelines for the pathways to criminal actions estimated for different demographic subgroups in the study sample. Finally, a probabilistic simulation model was used to assess the feasibility of the model to identify common high-frequency and high-risk sequential behavioral segment pairs in the offenders’ pathways to terrorist criminality.

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Radicalization Trajectories ; Dynamic Risk Assessment ; Homegrown Jihadists

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ID: 144865

Toward a behavioral model of “homegrown” radicalization trajectories / Klausen, Jytte; Campion, Selene ; Needle, Nathan ; Nguyen, Giang

Klausen, Jytte	Article
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This research note presents a dynamic risk assessment model of homegrown terrorists. The model was tested in a study of convicted “homegrown” American terrorism offenders inspired by Al Qaeda's ideology. The New York Police Department model developed by Silber and Bhatt was chosen as the basis for creating a typology of overt and detectable indicators of individual behaviors widely thought to be associated with extremism. Twenty-four specific cues associated with each stage of radicalization were used to code and estimate the sequencing of behaviors and the duration of the average radicalization trajectory. Sixty-eight cases have been analyzed thus far. A decision was made to publish the initial results when it became apparent that the model was an effective tool for the evaluation of terrorist offenders.

Key Words

Homegrown ; Behavioral Model ; Radicalization Trajectories ; Dynamic Risk Assessment Model ; Homegrown Terrorists

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