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| 1 |
ID:
145099
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| Summary/Abstract |
The abstention of the conservative-liberal government under Chancellor Angela Merkel on UN Security Council resolution 1973 marked the first occasion in which the Federal Republic of Germany stood against all three of its main Western partners, the US, France, and the UK, simultaneously, on a major foreign policy issue. Many accounts of this decision invoke the influence of electoral incentives. What is problematic, however, is that the causal weight attached to electoral politics is often left ambiguous and difficult to assess with traditional case study methods. The article, therefore, employs counterfactual reasoning to scrutinize “electoral politics” explanations of Germany's policy on Libya. Specifically, it develops counterfactuals in which decision making did not take place in the shadow of upcoming elections and investigates how other variables on different levels of analysis would have shaped decision making in the counterfactual scenarios. The findings suggest that electoral incentives did not decisively shift German foreign policy on Libya. More generally, the article speaks to the value of counterfactuals in foreign policy analysis.
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| 2 |
ID:
145103
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This paper considers how coups impact democratization. Current research focuses on coups as a threat to consolidated and fledgling democracies. Policymakers have adapted to this viewpoint by treating coups as unjustifiable maneuvers that must be curtailed, with states frequently terminating aid and IOs suspending membership following a coup. While coups clearly confound democratic consolidation, it is notable that the vast majority of coups do not happen in democracies. Therefore, we focus on authoritarian regimes in seeking to discover how coups might open paths toward democratization. We first argue that successful coups should promote democratization because leaders have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth. Second, we view failed coups as credible signals that leaders must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power. Empirical analyses strongly support the argument that coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise.
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| 3 |
ID:
145100
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Research into the conditions that cause former adversaries to seek improved relations has missed the interaction of systemic and domestic factors critical to a rapprochement. The United States was able to achieve a rapprochement with China 25 years after fighting a war against it, but has failed to develop normal diplomatic relations with the other adversary from that conflict, North Korea, after nearly 60 years. This study posits that reconciliation is the product of two factors: changing threat perceptions and economic incentives. At the international level, shifts must occur that change how the rivals perceive each other. While this creates conditions for a rapprochement, there must also be economic incentives to drive the two sides together. When both these conditions are present, reconciliation can occur. This theory is examined in two cases where diplomatic normalization with the United States occurred—China and Vietnam—and two cases where it did not—Iran and North Korea. The likelihood of improved relations between the United States and North Korea or Iran is also discussed in light of this theory.
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| 4 |
ID:
145104
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What explains China's fixation on Taiwan? With a focus on the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis as case, this study has led to the finding that “sacred commitments” explains far more about China's fixation on Taiwan than balancing or Taiwan's strategic significance, and its interests in Taiwan cannot be understood without taking its socially constructed “sacred commitments” to Taiwan into account. The theoretical implications of this study are that contrary to the conventional understanding of Chinese foreign policy as Realist in orientation, as it regards this case Realism was not particularly helpful, for the sorts of factors Realism “majors in” were not key to understanding China's Taiwan policy. The policy implications are that though the situation across the Taiwan Strait is calm at present, American policymakers must be absolutely clear that China's interests in Taiwan are unwavering and are not based on more pragmatic realpolitik considerations, but on “sacred commitments.”
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| 5 |
ID:
145101
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| Summary/Abstract |
Recent research has investigated the relative effectiveness of peacekeeping in stabilizing postconflict states, preventing the return to armed hostilities between belligerents, and reducing civilian abuse during civil conflict. This research has shed light on important theoretical and policy-relevant issues. However, scholars have largely neglected to evaluate the role of peacekeeping in protecting civilians during the notoriously unstable postconflict period. Even after active conflict has ended, the factions often persist in abusing civilians to reinforce conflict gains, shape the postconflict environment, exact revenge for wartime grievances, or spoil peace processes. This analysis investigates the effectiveness of peacekeeping missions in protecting civilians during the post-conflict “peace.” Using newly collected data on the number and type of United Nations peacekeeping personnel commitments along with civilian victimization data for all African conflicts between 1992 and 2010, we find that greater numbers of peacekeeping troops reduce anticivilian violence. By contrast, larger deployments of UN observers are positively correlated with violence.
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| 6 |
ID:
145102
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| Summary/Abstract |
With China's emergence as a global power, it is commonly assumed that the Chinese leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem-solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high levels of foreign policy similarity correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of political globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid seems to help buy support in global politics.
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