| Summary/Abstract |
Historically, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that the art of fortune telling had been disguised by scientism and sold to national policymakers using descriptions like Estimative Intelligence, Long Range Analysis, and Strategic Futures.1 Policymakers, even when they should know better, harbor expectations that intelligence organizations should somehow accurately predict future events.2 The ability to predict phenomena relevant to foreign intelligence in the second half of the twentieth century was limited by a paucity of analytic methodologies, quantified data, and information technologies that could effectively exploit the data.3 Nonetheless, when compared to Cold War-era equivalents the newer analytic disciplines, improvements in analytic standards and methodologies, and advances in computational technologies are enhancing the scientific validity and reliability of Intelligence Community (IC) products. This generational shift in analytic rigor was codified in Intelligence Community Directive.
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