| Summary/Abstract |
Nate Silver is a prominent statistician/statistical probability analyst who, among other achievements, may be best known for making a very accurate prediction of President Barack Obama's victory and its dimensions in the 2012 election.1 In doing so, he probably redeemed (at least partially) the reputation of sophisticated mathematical modeling that was badly tarnished by its association with the poor investment decisions that brought the financial debacle of 2008.2 Does Silver have a potential counterpart in the intelligence business, where predicting the nature and likelihood of threats is a central concern, and what would that person have to do to rise to the occasion?
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