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| 1 |
ID:
153053
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Chinese economy is slowing down and is in the midst of a structural transformation from export-led and investment-led growth to domestic demand-led and consumption-led growth. While there are widespread concerns among China's trading partners about the effect of the slowdown in China's growth on their exports, China's structural changes are also likely to have a significant impact: for example, China will import fewer machines and more cosmetics. The central objective of the present paper is to empirically examine the effect of China's structural transformation on the exports of East Asian economies, which have close trade linkages with China. We find that economies that have failed to increase the share of consumption goods in their exports to China have suffered larger declines in their quantities of exports to China. In addition, economies that have suffered losses in their shares of China's parts and components imports have faced reductions in their shares in China's total imports.
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| 2 |
ID:
160544
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study examines the patterns of structural change in economic development by drawing insights from the case of Vietnam. Empirical evidence from literature indicates that developing countries are likely to gain from structural transformation to boost the growth of labour productivity. While most East Asian countries have enjoyed significant structural transformation bonus, many African and Latin American economies, often endowed with rich natural resources, have benefited negligibly from this process. Vietnam, in particular, has gained substantially from its growth promoting structural transformation, contributing to nearly half of overall labour productivity improvement between 1990 and 2013. This structural change effect was modest in 1990–2000, strongest in 2000–07, and declining (but still significant) in 2007–13. The process has been associated with rapid expansion of the manufacturing and service sectors, change in export composition towards higher share of medium-and high-tech manufactures, and integration into global value chains. The expected slowdown in structural change suggests that the country would have to rely more on within-sector productivity improvement to enhance growth.
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| 3 |
ID:
147501
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the economic growth and catch-up of Korea over the past half century. Korea's growth experience confirms the prediction of a “conditional convergence” theory. Cross-country regression further suggests that Korea's strong catch-up to the USA is also attributable to its favorable growth factors such as strong investment, lower fertility, greater trade openness, and improvements in human resources and rule of law. However, as Korea catches up to the USA and its steady-state level in per worker output, it will be subject to a growth slowdown unless improvements are made in those growth factors. While manufacturing-oriented and export-oriented development has served Korea's success well, poor productivity performance in the services sector has hampered overall productivity growth. Korea's experience implies that China's potential growth rates are likely to slow in the coming decades due to the convergence effect and with the rebalancing toward a domestic consumption and services-based economy. China needs to upgrade its rule of law, reform state-owned enterprises and improve productivity, particularly in its services sector, to sustain strong growth.
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