| Summary/Abstract |
The international centre of gravity keeps shifting eastwards towards Asia, while size continues to matter a great deal in global affairs. No individual European country counts for much in the global game – and will count even less in the future because of a combination of demography and economics. At the same time, Europe is surrounded by a wide arc of instability stretching from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to the east, down to Syria (and Turkey?), Israel and Palestine, Egypt and Algeria to the south, and Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan further to the east. Much of its neighbourhood has imploded in recent years exporting to Europe ever increasing numbers of refugees, immigrants … and also terrorists, who join forces with home-grown ones. The prospects are not bright, to put it mildly. Europe will have to live with a very difficult and unstable neighbourhood for a long time to come, trying to cope with the instability that spills over its porous borders. Under such conditions, can it continue to rely collectively (and free ride) on the US security umbrella? Or, will Europe be ready at some point for adult life in a rough world that it has wished away for so long?
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