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ID: 150767

Business case uncertainty of power plants in future energy systems with wind power / Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd; Broek, Machteld van den ; Özge, Özdemir; Koutstaal, Paul

Broek, Machteld van den	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

The European power sector is transforming due to climate policies and an increased deployment of intermittent RES. The sector will require thermal power plants for the decades to come, but their business cases are (negatively) affected by this transformation. This study presents a novel tool to quantify the effect of policy, price and project-related uncertainties on power plant business cases. This tool can support policymakers in stimulating necessary investments in new thermal generation capacity. We find that these investments are currently unsound (power plants recoup on average –12% to 59% of their initial investment). Future climate policy, i.e. the CO2 price, has a very strong impact on business cases (affects the profitability by 5–40%-points). The impact of the deployment of wind power is average (2–8%-point difference between 10% and 21% wind penetration). Variations in annual wind power production barely affect the profitability (variation of ±1%-point). To stimulate new investments, policymakers should first decrease the uncertainty in business cases caused by policy. Durable climate policy is especially important. Also, policies to increase the profits of thermal power plants should be carefully considered and implemented. This combined approach will reduce the revenue gap that needs to be bridged by supportive policies.

Key Words

Wind Power ; Thermal Power Plant ; Business Case ; Monte-Carlo Analysis ; Power System Simulation

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ID: 148492

Cislunar transportation system fueled by lunar resources / Sowers, George F

Sowers, George F	Journal Article
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A transportation system for a self sustaining economy in cislunar space is discussed. The system is based on liquid oxygen (LO2), liquid hydrogen (LH2) propulsion whose fuels are derived from ice mined at the polar regions of the Moon. The elements of the transportation system consist of the Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage (ACES) and the XEUS lander, both being developed by United Launch Alliance (ULA). The main propulsion elements and structures are common between ACES and XEUS. Both stages are fully reusable with refueling of their LO2/LH2 propellants. Utilization of lunar sourced propellants has the potential to dramatically lower the cost of transportation within the cislunar environs. These lower costs dramatically lower the barriers to entry of a number of promising cislunar based activities including space solar power. One early application of the architecture is providing lunar sourced propellant to refuel ACES for traditional spacecraft deployment missions. The business case for this application provides an economic framework for a potential lunar water mining operation.

Key Words

Transportation ; Mining ; Cislunar ; Propellant ; Business Case

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