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ID:
150049
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| Summary/Abstract |
The need for technological transition of electricity production becomes a global problem. However, in coal-dominated Polish power system this need is even more crucial than anywhere, since technical lifetime of the most domestic power plants is ending. In this paper, the impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2 combined with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission trading mechanism on power technology choice was studied using Market Allocation (MARKAL) model of Polish power system. Poland can contribute to achieving ambitious EU CO2 emission reduction goals to 2050 by switching to diversified electricity mix of low-carbon coal technologies with CCS, and carbon-free options e.g. nuclear, biomass IGCC, wind onshore and offshore. This ‘low-carbon’ mix can be achieved only at high emission allowance prices, stimulated by the introduction of Market Stability Reserve to EU ETS and successive decrease in EU CO2 emission cap. At high emission allowance prices, Poland's CO2 emissions from ETS-participating electricity generating plants are expected to decrease in 2010–2050 period by 96–99%, depending on the projected electricity consumption. Model results prove that SO2/NOx emission trading scheme, envisaged in Poland, is not effective, in view of Industrial Emission Directive implementation, and should be reconsidered.
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| 2 |
ID:
149906
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| Summary/Abstract |
Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.
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