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| 1 |
ID:
150792
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| Summary/Abstract |
A large number of studies have been conducted on the contribution of technological progress and structural change to the evolution of aggregate energy intensity in the industrial sector. However, no analyses have been done to examine theses changes in the non-energy intensive industry in France. We analyzed their importance in French industry with respect to their energy intensity, energy costs, value added, labour and the diffusion of production sites by using data at the 3-digit level with 236 sectors. Using a new decomposition method that gives no residual, this paper attempted to examine, over 10 years from 1996 to 2005, the changes that occurred in an area that has been neglected in energy analysis. We found that structural change had an overwhelming effect on the decline of aggregate energy intensity. Furthermore, we found that the higher the level of sector disaggregation, the more significant the changes that can be attributed to structural change, due to the homogeneity of this industrial group. The results of our study show that it is important to take into account the effects of structural change in “bottom-up” modelling exercises so as to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting for policy-makers and scientists.
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| 2 |
ID:
149964
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The cement industry is the second most energy-intensive sector in Taiwan, which underlines the need to understand its potential for energy efficiency improvement. A bottom-up model-based assessment is utilized to conduct a scenario analysis of energy saving opportunities up to the year 2035. The analysis is supported by detailed expert interviews in all cement plants of Taiwan. The simulation results reveal that by 2035, eighteen energy efficient technologies could result in 25% savings for electricity and 9% savings for fuels under the technical diffusion scenario. This potential totally amounts to about 5000 TJ/year, of which 91% can be implemented cost-effectively assuming a discount rate of 10%. Policy makers should support a fast diffusion of these technologies. Additionally, policy makers can tap further saving potentials. First, by decreasing the clinker share, which is currently regulated to a minimum of 95%. Second, by extending the prohibition to build new cement plants by allowing for replacement of existing capacity with new innovative plants in the coming years. Third, by supporting the use of alternative fuels, which is currently still a niche in Taiwan.
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| 3 |
ID:
175266
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In light of the Swiss government's reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Paris Agreement, this article investigates how and with which policy measures these reduction targets can be met for the Swiss residential building sector. The paper applies an agent-based building stock model to simulate the development of the Swiss residential building stock under three different policy scenarios. The scenario results until 2050 are compared against the reduction targets set by the Swiss government and with each other. The results indicate that while the current state of Swiss climate policy is effective in reducing energy demand and GHG emissions, it will not be enough to reach the ambitious emission-reduction targets. These targets can be reached only through an almost complete phase-out of fossil-fuel heating systems by 2050, which can be achieved through the introduction of further financial and/or regulatory measures. The results indicate that while financial measures such as an increase in the CO2 tax as well as subsidies are effective in speeding up the transition in the beginning, a complete phase-out of oil and gas by 2050 is reached only through additional regulatory measures such as a CO2 limit for new and existing buildings.
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