| Summary/Abstract |
South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation.
The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme.
The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies.
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