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ID: 162941

Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas / Zarnikau, J.

Zarnikau, J.	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

Applying a regression-based approach to a newly developed sample of over 60,000 hourly observations for 01/01/2011–12/30/2017, we answer the question: what moves the day-ahead market (DAM) prices for energy and ancillary services (AS) and the real-time market (RTM) price for energy in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)? Our answer comprises the following findings that capture the interdependence of ERCOT's energy and AS products: (1) the DAM energy price increases with the day-ahead forecasts of natural gas price, system load and AS requirements but declines with nuclear and wind generation's forecasts; (2) the AS prices increase with the DAM energy price and the AS procurement forecasts but decline with the AS offer forecasts; and (3) the RTM energy price increases with the DAM energy price but diverges from the DAM energy price due to forecasting errors related to the DAM energy price's fundamental drivers. These findings imply that Texas can reduce the prices for day-ahead energy, day-ahead AS and real-time energy via wind generation development and demand-side-management. Further, Texas can improve its electricity trading efficiency by improving ERCOT's forecast accuracy to narrow the RTM energy price's divergence from the DAM energy price.

Key Words

Ancillary Services ; ERCOT ; Day-ahead Market ; Real-Time Market ; Electricity Products

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ID: 150438

Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets / Woo, C K; Moore, J ; Schneiderman, B ; Ho, T

Woo, C K	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

We answer two policy questions: (1) what are the estimated merit-order effects of renewable energy in the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO’s) day-ahead market (DAM) and real-time market (RTM)? and (2) what causes the hourly DAM and RTM prices to systematically diverge? The first question is timely and relevant because if the merit-order effect estimates are small, California’s renewable energy development is of limited help in cutting electricity consumers’ bills but also has a lesser adverse impact on the state’s investment incentive for natural-gas-fired generation. The second question is related to the efficient market hypothesis under which the hourly RTM and DAM prices tend to converge. Using a sample of about 21,000 hourly observations of CAISO market prices and their fundamental drivers during 12/12/2012–04/30/2015, we document statistically significant estimates (p-value≤0.01) for the DAM and RTM merit-order effects. This finding lends support to California’s adopted procurement process to provide sufficient investment incentives for natural-gas-fired generation. We document that the RTM-DAM price divergence partly depends on the CASIO’s day-ahead forecast errors for system loads and renewable energy. This finding suggests that improving the performance of the CAISO’s day-ahead forecasts can enhance trading efficiency in California’s DAM and RTM electricity markets.

Key Words

California ; Renewable Energy ; Electricity Prices ; Day-ahead Market ; Real-Time Market ; Merit-Order Effects

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